***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 0.7 4.6 11.4 110.0 67.2 47.0 0.1 1.5 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.6 5.4 8.6 87.0 59.7 43.0 0.9 3.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.4 8.2 11.2 103.1 63.6 48.7 0.1 5.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 1.3 11.8 10.8 85.8 60.2 45.2 0.5 2.8 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 1.7 14.2 11.3 91.0 63.8 45.1 0.0 4.1 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.0 7.7 9.8 73.3 56.1 42.6 1.1 4.3 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.2 7.0 9.6 96.8 65.5 46.4 0.4 2.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 2.8 15.5 12.0 91.2 58.6 42.9 1.8 6.9 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.3 11.5 12.5 99.9 67.4 47.5 0.0 5.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 2.1 12.1 12.9 97.2 63.3 45.7 0.4 5.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 1.9 9.5 10.9 88.9 59.6 43.7 0.0 4.8 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.1 5.2 10.3 83.4 56.7 42.7 0.1 2.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 1.5 6.8 10.3 79.5 54.9 42.9 0.6 3.3 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.3 10.4 12.1 90.4 58.4 47.7 0.1 6.8 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.3 10.2 10.0 84.7 64.8 46.0 0.0 1.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.5 4.2 10.3 81.9 57.6 44.6 0.2 3.3 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.8 5.9 8.4 91.8 62.5 44.0 0.5 4.4 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.0 19.1 13.5 97.7 66.4 47.9 1.0 10.0 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.2 4.9 8.6 85.6 57.8 43.8 0.4 2.8 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 2.0 9.8 15.7 97.4 60.5 45.3 0.8 5.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.3 10.4 12.1 105.8 66.2 48.9 0.1 5.3 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.1 6.7 8.6 89.5 62.7 45.3 0.2 4.9 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.1 2.9 9.3 88.1 56.6 46.1 0.2 2.4 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.9 15.9 12.4 98.3 66.3 49.5 0.3 8.6 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.5 11.6 12.4 108.2 65.4 46.9 1.3 3.2 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.2 9.9 76.3 56.4 41.3 0.0 5.1 21.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 1.7 8.4 12.0 112.5 66.7 48.2 0.1 3.5 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.4 9.5 10.0 81.9 61.8 45.8 0.8 1.3 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.9 24.2 14.4 100.5 64.0 47.5 1.9 16.8 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.0 3.4 9.6 94.6 58.6 46.4 0.8 2.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------