***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.5 5.6 11.5 97.5 64.5 50.0 0.9 3.5 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.9 8.8 10.7 90.3 57.2 46.4 0.4 3.9 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 1.6 9.3 11.9 98.6 60.8 49.5 0.7 3.8 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.5 13.3 12.7 104.2 62.1 51.2 4.0 10.0 20.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.2 7.0 12.8 104.7 58.1 51.3 2.2 4.9 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.2 13.6 101.5 62.8 50.3 1.6 7.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.7 10.1 84.5 57.0 44.8 0.3 5.3 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.9 16.6 13.7 95.2 61.3 49.7 4.7 10.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.9 12.9 104.8 59.6 51.4 1.4 9.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.9 10.2 14.3 103.1 62.0 51.5 2.9 8.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 1.7 5.9 13.4 100.4 60.4 51.2 1.7 3.7 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.6 8.3 11.8 86.9 60.0 47.1 1.4 5.4 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.9 6.3 13.1 96.4 62.9 50.0 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.1 15.5 104.2 62.6 50.6 3.0 8.0 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.8 12.3 11.2 88.3 60.7 47.0 1.1 4.4 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.2 8.1 12.8 98.4 61.6 50.5 1.2 4.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.5 9.5 75.9 56.2 44.1 0.3 5.3 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 13.4 15.5 104.7 59.2 51.7 2.3 9.9 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.0 5.4 11.3 94.9 59.9 47.4 0.9 4.2 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.1 14.6 16.6 94.3 55.5 48.8 5.3 12.7 21.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.5 11.4 12.8 104.0 63.7 51.3 2.4 6.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.5 10.2 10.4 80.5 55.0 45.8 0.2 6.8 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 1.9 8.3 12.1 99.8 63.4 47.9 0.5 4.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.4 11.1 14.6 104.6 62.2 51.5 1.4 7.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.2 10.1 12.8 98.6 64.6 50.2 0.9 5.4 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.3 9.9 12.1 87.3 59.3 47.0 2.3 6.5 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 1.9 6.8 12.0 93.8 63.6 49.6 1.2 4.3 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.8 11.7 12.2 99.9 61.6 50.4 0.3 3.8 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 17.6 16.3 100.9 57.0 49.9 5.4 13.8 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.2 9.2 11.0 94.3 59.0 48.0 0.7 4.9 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------