***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.5 17.9 12.1 109.0 65.0 51.1 1.1 5.6 19.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.8 10.9 12.0 120.8 69.8 53.3 1.2 3.9 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.2 12.9 11.3 105.4 63.9 50.7 2.1 6.9 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.9 18.7 10.9 80.4 58.2 45.6 9.9 14.9 24.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.6 13.3 11.9 91.5 57.5 48.4 5.2 9.5 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.2 11.6 80.2 54.8 44.6 2.4 9.1 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.2 10.4 11.8 119.2 67.8 52.4 1.4 4.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.0 16.6 13.6 92.5 60.4 48.9 8.1 15.1 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.3 13.0 11.5 87.2 56.9 47.3 3.4 11.6 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.3 20.4 13.6 89.8 60.0 48.6 8.9 16.2 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.5 16.7 11.7 92.3 61.7 48.9 8.6 12.6 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.4 17.2 11.7 93.1 58.7 48.6 4.6 7.0 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.8 11.2 12.9 91.5 55.2 47.1 3.0 8.5 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 7.1 18.4 15.3 104.0 62.0 50.8 6.6 11.1 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.0 14.1 7.9 66.6 57.6 44.1 4.2 10.7 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.0 10.8 11.9 90.3 58.3 47.7 3.7 9.3 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.0 8.4 12.1 120.2 68.5 54.2 0.6 3.0 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 6.9 17.9 14.9 93.4 60.0 49.2 6.0 12.7 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.6 8.6 12.3 117.5 68.2 53.3 3.5 5.7 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.3 15.1 16.1 97.8 62.3 50.2 5.0 11.4 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.6 14.1 11.0 88.7 55.8 46.6 5.3 10.6 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.1 10.9 13.3 123.0 68.9 55.1 0.9 4.1 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.6 11.4 12.8 115.1 66.2 52.7 4.0 8.5 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.5 15.4 13.2 99.3 63.0 50.8 4.1 9.9 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.5 16.8 13.8 105.6 63.1 51.6 5.1 9.6 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.4 10.5 78.9 53.1 44.4 3.5 6.3 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.2 19.2 13.5 114.0 65.9 52.3 2.7 7.3 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.6 13.0 9.7 76.9 58.9 45.2 6.5 11.0 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.2 25.4 15.4 97.2 59.6 49.6 10.6 19.8 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.9 10.1 11.9 116.2 68.4 52.0 1.9 4.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------