***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 18.5 18.9 18.3 -0.7 40.9 41.8 18.5 19.2 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 20.1 19.9 18.5 -0.5 48.5 45.0 18.6 19.9 20.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 20.4 19.8 18.6 -0.6 43.0 42.9 18.7 20.1 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 11.7 12.1 15.9 -0.6 39.6 42.8 12.0 12.6 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 19.1 19.9 16.8 -0.7 38.9 40.9 19.1 20.0 20.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 18.3 18.6 15.2 -0.6 42.3 42.8 18.3 19.0 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 19.7 19.2 18.4 -0.5 43.7 43.9 18.7 19.5 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.4 10.2 15.5 -0.5 40.7 43.4 9.6 10.3 10.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 20.1 19.7 17.5 -0.5 45.4 43.5 19.3 19.8 20.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 20.0 19.3 16.3 -0.5 42.6 43.8 18.9 19.7 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 19.0 19.4 16.9 -0.6 38.3 41.7 19.1 20.0 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 18.3 19.2 16.3 -0.5 39.9 42.8 18.7 19.4 20.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 19.1 19.5 16.2 -0.7 37.6 40.4 19.3 20.3 21.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 20.7 20.2 17.5 -0.4 43.0 44.8 19.5 20.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 19.6 19.2 17.5 -0.3 45.8 46.2 18.3 19.3 19.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 19.8 20.1 16.5 -0.7 38.5 41.1 19.8 20.7 21.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 19.6 19.5 18.2 -0.4 49.9 46.7 18.2 19.5 19.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 18.2 18.6 15.8 -0.4 40.5 43.8 18.2 19.1 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 19.9 19.6 18.7 -0.4 49.0 45.4 18.7 19.6 20.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 14.9 15.6 13.7 -0.4 39.7 43.5 15.4 16.0 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 19.0 19.6 18.1 -0.7 42.0 41.3 18.8 20.0 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 20.1 19.9 18.2 -0.5 47.7 45.6 18.9 19.9 20.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 20.2 19.9 18.8 -0.3 49.8 47.1 19.1 19.9 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 20.5 19.7 17.4 -0.4 43.4 44.1 19.2 20.2 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 18.5 19.0 16.8 -0.8 41.0 39.8 18.4 19.3 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 18.8 19.5 15.7 -0.6 40.6 42.1 19.3 19.8 20.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 18.7 19.3 17.6 -0.7 41.4 41.1 18.9 19.6 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 19.7 19.1 16.7 -0.5 43.5 44.4 18.2 19.4 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.8 15.1 -0.4 39.8 43.6 14.2 15.2 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 19.9 19.6 18.5 -0.5 43.6 43.7 18.5 19.7 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------