***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.7 16.9 0.3 54.2 54.5 14.9 17.0 18.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.9 17.0 0.5 57.1 55.7 15.7 17.3 18.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.7 18.5 17.3 0.4 55.0 55.0 15.5 18.4 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.8 14.8 0.4 57.6 55.0 8.3 9.7 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.6 18.6 15.6 0.4 58.7 55.3 15.6 18.2 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 17.3 17.0 14.5 0.8 56.4 57.4 15.6 16.7 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.8 16.9 0.4 56.1 55.0 15.2 17.7 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.4 14.7 0.8 59.8 58.0 7.1 8.8 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 18.5 19.0 16.2 0.5 58.3 55.6 15.9 18.0 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 17.8 18.0 15.4 0.7 58.9 57.2 15.3 17.3 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 18.2 18.4 15.7 0.6 58.7 56.8 15.7 17.8 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.4 18.8 15.5 0.8 58.4 57.8 15.1 16.8 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.1 15.1 0.7 55.5 57.2 16.3 17.7 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.1 18.0 16.2 0.6 56.1 55.7 15.4 17.4 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.8 15.5 0.5 59.7 56.0 14.5 16.2 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 18.9 19.3 15.4 0.6 57.3 56.8 16.4 18.4 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.7 17.2 16.7 0.6 56.9 56.1 15.0 16.2 18.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.3 15.1 0.8 57.4 57.2 14.1 16.4 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 17.9 18.0 17.2 0.5 57.1 55.8 15.2 17.6 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.3 13.0 0.9 58.8 58.2 12.0 14.3 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 18.7 18.7 16.7 0.3 55.6 54.3 15.5 18.3 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.7 16.6 0.5 55.2 55.0 15.2 17.0 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.9 17.4 0.6 56.8 56.0 15.4 17.4 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 18.7 19.0 16.2 0.6 57.5 56.2 15.3 18.2 19.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.3 15.4 0.3 55.0 53.8 15.5 16.6 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.2 15.0 0.9 58.9 58.5 15.9 17.7 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 18.0 18.4 16.2 0.3 55.4 54.5 15.8 17.5 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.6 15.3 0.5 58.5 55.9 14.6 17.2 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.3 14.4 0.8 57.6 57.4 10.6 13.4 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 18.0 17.9 17.0 0.5 56.0 55.2 15.7 17.7 18.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------