***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 17.0 18.7 18.0 0.1 52.4 53.1 16.2 18.6 19.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 17.1 19.2 18.1 0.2 53.5 53.7 16.9 19.0 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 17.1 18.8 18.3 0.1 51.2 53.5 16.8 18.8 20.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.6 15.8 0.1 53.0 53.0 10.3 11.3 12.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 20.0 19.3 16.5 0.1 52.7 52.9 17.3 19.3 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 18.9 18.2 15.1 0.4 50.3 54.2 17.0 18.1 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 16.7 18.5 18.0 0.1 53.9 53.0 16.4 18.3 20.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.7 8.9 15.4 0.3 51.3 53.9 8.2 8.9 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 19.9 19.3 17.0 0.2 53.2 53.4 17.5 19.2 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 19.5 18.7 16.1 0.3 52.6 53.9 17.0 18.7 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 19.9 19.3 16.4 0.2 53.1 53.5 17.3 19.3 20.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 19.3 18.7 16.1 0.2 52.2 53.8 16.4 18.5 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 19.8 19.2 15.6 0.2 50.7 53.4 17.7 19.2 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 17.3 19.8 17.0 0.1 52.0 53.8 17.2 19.7 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 18.6 18.2 16.5 0.1 53.4 53.9 17.2 18.0 19.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 20.4 19.7 16.1 0.2 52.3 53.7 17.9 19.7 20.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 16.3 18.4 18.0 0.2 56.1 53.9 16.8 17.9 20.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 15.9 18.2 15.8 0.3 49.3 54.0 16.5 18.2 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 17.0 19.1 18.3 0.2 52.4 53.9 16.9 19.1 20.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 13.3 14.8 13.6 0.3 49.6 54.0 13.2 14.8 16.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 17.3 19.2 17.6 0.1 51.6 52.6 17.0 19.1 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 17.1 19.1 17.8 0.1 52.8 53.1 17.4 18.9 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 17.2 19.7 18.3 0.2 51.4 54.4 17.3 19.6 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 16.9 19.1 17.0 0.2 51.1 54.1 16.6 19.1 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 17.0 18.6 16.3 0.0 51.9 52.1 16.9 18.5 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 19.5 19.3 15.8 0.4 58.8 55.3 17.6 18.7 19.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 16.9 18.6 17.3 0.1 52.5 52.8 16.7 18.4 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 16.9 18.3 16.2 0.2 53.7 53.9 17.1 18.2 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.5 14.2 15.0 0.3 48.5 53.4 11.9 14.2 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 16.8 18.6 18.1 0.2 52.6 53.4 16.5 18.4 19.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------