***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 19.7 19.4 19.5 -2.1 34.8 32.5 19.4 20.9 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 20.3 20.7 19.8 -1.8 35.2 35.4 20.2 21.9 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 20.1 20.5 19.7 -2.1 34.9 32.5 20.4 21.6 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 12.8 12.6 16.6 -2.1 29.8 31.2 13.3 14.1 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 20.1 20.0 17.6 -2.5 29.1 29.0 20.4 22.0 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 18.6 18.4 15.4 -2.6 23.5 26.7 19.9 21.0 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 19.9 20.2 19.6 -1.9 34.6 34.8 20.0 21.3 22.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 9.8 9.9 15.8 -2.2 29.2 30.0 10.3 11.6 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 20.1 20.6 18.8 -2.0 35.3 32.0 20.5 21.8 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 19.7 20.3 16.8 -2.2 32.2 31.2 20.4 21.5 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 20.0 19.7 17.9 -2.5 29.1 29.2 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 19.2 19.7 16.8 -2.3 28.4 29.6 20.8 21.6 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 19.8 19.3 17.3 -2.7 25.8 26.7 20.6 22.8 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 23.3 20.9 18.8 -1.7 36.7 34.6 20.7 22.8 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 20.3 20.8 19.5 -1.6 35.5 34.6 20.7 21.6 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 20.5 20.4 17.3 -2.6 26.5 27.6 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 19.5 19.8 19.5 -1.6 35.8 37.1 19.6 21.2 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 19.2 19.9 16.0 -2.1 32.4 31.0 19.9 20.9 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 20.1 20.5 19.9 -1.8 35.8 35.4 20.1 22.0 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 15.4 15.4 14.1 -2.1 28.8 30.0 15.5 17.6 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 20.0 20.2 19.4 -2.2 32.5 30.7 20.2 21.6 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 20.5 20.3 19.5 -1.6 35.1 36.3 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 20.4 20.7 20.0 -1.5 37.4 37.1 20.5 22.1 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 20.1 20.5 18.5 -1.9 35.4 33.0 20.3 22.1 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 19.6 19.2 18.1 -2.3 29.9 29.5 19.9 21.5 22.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 20.1 19.5 15.8 -2.7 23.1 25.7 20.1 22.6 23.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 19.8 19.6 18.7 -2.2 32.5 30.9 19.6 21.5 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 20.2 20.2 17.9 -1.9 31.8 32.2 20.3 22.2 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 14.8 14.6 15.4 -2.1 31.4 30.9 15.0 17.4 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 19.9 20.3 19.8 -2.0 35.5 34.0 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------