***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 7.1 7.7 9.8 -0.7 34.1 36.4 7.7 8.0 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 7.1 7.4 9.5 -0.5 36.1 39.8 7.4 8.0 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 9.3 9.7 9.9 -0.6 31.6 36.8 9.8 10.4 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 4.8 4.8 7.2 -0.6 31.0 36.1 4.8 5.3 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 6.2 6.5 7.7 -0.8 29.7 33.4 6.6 7.6 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 5.5 6.1 5.6 -0.7 29.5 34.3 6.2 6.9 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 7.2 7.5 9.6 -0.6 32.0 39.0 7.6 8.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 1.9 2.0 5.7 -0.8 30.0 33.5 2.1 2.5 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 7.4 7.4 8.0 -0.7 29.3 34.6 7.6 8.3 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 7.2 7.3 6.6 -0.7 29.4 34.2 7.4 8.0 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 6.6 6.6 7.2 -0.8 28.8 31.8 6.9 7.8 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 5.6 5.7 6.3 -0.9 28.1 31.4 5.9 7.0 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 5.9 6.1 6.0 -1.0 26.7 29.9 6.6 7.5 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 7.8 7.9 8.0 -0.6 32.3 36.0 7.9 8.4 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 7.5 8.2 8.7 -0.4 33.3 39.3 8.2 8.5 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 7.2 7.7 6.6 -0.9 28.8 31.8 7.9 8.5 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 7.5 7.6 9.5 -0.3 39.8 42.9 7.3 8.3 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 6.0 6.1 6.1 -0.7 29.7 34.7 6.4 7.0 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 7.3 7.5 9.6 -0.5 35.4 39.1 7.4 8.0 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 2.5 2.6 4.3 -0.8 31.0 34.2 2.7 3.8 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 6.9 7.0 9.3 -0.7 30.7 35.8 7.2 7.8 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 6.6 6.7 9.4 -0.4 35.9 39.7 6.6 7.3 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 7.0 7.3 9.5 -0.5 34.3 38.3 7.2 7.7 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 7.0 7.3 7.9 -0.6 30.1 35.4 7.4 7.5 8.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 7.4 7.6 8.6 -0.8 30.1 34.7 7.7 8.5 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 6.3 6.4 5.6 -1.1 25.4 28.9 6.7 7.6 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 6.9 7.7 9.2 -0.8 32.1 36.0 7.7 8.1 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 5.7 6.6 7.6 -0.5 32.2 37.5 6.6 7.1 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 5.2 5.2 5.4 -0.8 30.6 33.7 5.3 5.7 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 7.3 7.6 9.7 -0.6 32.3 38.0 7.6 8.4 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------