***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.1 7.1 9.6 0.1 51.3 51.1 6.4 7.1 8.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.2 9.3 0.2 51.3 51.4 6.2 7.2 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.5 9.6 0.0 50.4 50.4 8.1 9.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.5 6.6 -0.4 45.6 45.7 3.5 4.8 5.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.3 5.9 6.9 -0.4 45.0 45.2 5.5 6.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.2 4.9 5.1 -0.5 39.7 43.4 4.7 5.9 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 5.9 7.0 9.3 0.0 49.6 50.5 6.7 7.0 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 0.7 1.7 5.3 -0.4 42.2 44.7 1.0 1.9 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.1 7.4 -0.3 44.0 46.7 6.7 7.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.3 6.6 6.0 -0.4 42.2 45.7 6.3 7.3 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.5 6.3 -0.6 42.4 43.0 6.1 6.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.1 5.5 5.7 -0.6 41.8 42.5 5.3 5.7 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 5.7 6.0 5.1 -0.7 39.4 41.2 5.7 6.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.7 7.3 7.4 -0.3 45.6 46.6 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.8 7.6 -0.4 42.9 45.4 7.3 8.0 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.9 7.2 5.7 -0.6 41.5 41.8 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 6.3 7.4 9.1 0.1 49.5 51.2 6.5 7.4 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.8 5.5 -0.5 41.1 45.0 5.4 6.1 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.9 9.3 0.1 51.5 51.1 6.3 6.9 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.0 3.7 -0.4 42.8 45.8 1.9 2.5 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.8 6.1 8.8 -0.1 46.5 48.6 5.9 6.4 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.7 6.3 8.9 0.0 48.0 49.7 5.7 6.6 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.0 9.1 0.0 49.4 50.1 5.9 7.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.7 7.2 -0.4 42.7 45.7 6.0 7.2 7.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.0 6.7 8.2 0.0 49.8 49.2 6.3 6.7 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.0 6.1 5.1 -0.7 38.1 40.5 6.1 6.6 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 5.8 6.9 8.9 0.1 50.2 50.5 6.1 6.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.8 6.7 -0.5 41.8 43.8 5.2 6.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 5.9 4.9 5.0 -0.5 41.7 44.9 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 6.5 7.2 9.4 0.1 51.1 51.3 6.4 7.2 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------