***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 7.6 8.3 10.0 -1.3 35.7 34.8 8.2 9.1 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 8.0 8.4 9.8 -1.0 37.5 36.9 8.3 9.4 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 9.4 10.4 10.2 -1.2 34.0 34.9 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 4.7 5.9 7.6 -1.1 34.1 36.0 5.9 6.6 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 6.6 7.1 8.2 -1.3 32.6 33.5 7.2 8.4 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 5.7 6.2 6.1 -1.0 34.3 35.4 6.2 7.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 8.1 8.6 9.8 -1.1 36.7 37.3 8.4 9.2 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 2.3 2.4 6.1 -1.2 32.7 32.9 2.4 3.9 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 8.2 8.2 8.4 -1.2 30.9 32.5 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 7.5 7.7 6.9 -1.2 32.4 33.1 7.7 8.8 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 7.0 6.9 7.7 -1.3 30.6 32.1 7.0 8.6 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 5.9 6.0 6.9 -1.3 32.1 32.5 6.0 7.6 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 6.0 6.6 6.6 -1.3 31.2 31.4 6.7 8.0 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 8.0 8.4 8.3 -1.1 32.2 34.6 8.5 9.5 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 8.1 8.8 9.2 -0.9 34.8 36.5 8.7 10.1 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 7.6 7.8 7.2 -1.3 32.1 33.1 8.1 9.2 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 8.3 9.0 9.7 -0.8 39.8 39.2 8.8 9.5 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 6.3 6.6 6.5 -1.1 34.1 34.3 6.6 8.4 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 8.1 8.6 9.8 -1.1 35.8 35.9 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 2.4 2.8 4.6 -1.3 32.6 33.4 2.8 4.1 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 6.9 7.8 9.6 -1.2 32.5 33.3 7.8 8.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 7.3 7.8 9.7 -1.0 38.1 37.1 7.7 8.1 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 7.5 7.9 9.7 -1.1 33.4 34.8 7.9 9.0 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 7.4 7.5 8.3 -1.1 33.4 34.5 7.5 8.3 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 8.0 8.6 9.0 -1.4 35.1 34.5 8.5 9.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 6.4 6.9 6.2 -1.3 30.7 33.2 7.1 7.9 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 8.4 8.6 9.5 -1.3 36.8 35.5 8.4 10.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 6.0 7.4 8.1 -0.9 35.9 37.3 7.0 8.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 5.9 6.6 5.7 -1.3 32.7 32.8 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 8.3 8.8 10.0 -1.2 35.4 35.8 8.8 9.9 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------