***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 8.1 8.7 10.6 -2.0 25.0 26.0 8.9 9.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 8.4 8.7 10.7 -1.4 31.8 32.8 8.8 10.1 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 10.3 10.4 11.1 -1.6 27.0 28.5 10.7 11.9 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 5.6 5.6 8.4 -1.5 31.7 30.4 5.7 7.0 8.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 7.0 7.2 9.1 -1.9 25.0 25.5 8.3 9.0 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 6.8 6.5 6.5 -1.9 23.9 24.0 7.2 8.3 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 8.7 8.8 10.7 -1.5 31.5 32.8 8.9 9.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 2.0 2.6 6.7 -1.8 21.9 23.0 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 8.6 8.6 9.4 -1.6 23.0 24.6 8.9 9.7 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 8.2 8.2 7.7 -1.6 22.9 24.5 9.2 9.6 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 7.6 8.2 8.9 -1.8 23.2 23.8 8.3 9.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 6.3 6.2 7.4 -2.1 20.5 20.9 7.2 8.4 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 6.9 7.3 7.5 -2.2 21.3 20.3 7.8 8.9 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 9.0 8.8 9.3 -1.3 25.2 28.7 9.1 10.3 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.7 9.1 10.7 -1.0 35.3 34.8 8.7 10.3 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 8.3 8.7 8.1 -1.9 22.4 23.1 9.6 10.0 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 10.3 9.6 10.8 -0.9 40.4 40.0 8.7 9.9 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 6.9 7.0 7.4 -1.5 24.1 26.0 7.5 8.4 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 8.6 8.6 10.7 -1.3 31.2 31.6 8.7 9.8 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 3.4 3.5 5.3 -1.8 22.6 23.2 3.9 4.8 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 7.9 7.8 10.6 -1.6 24.0 26.3 8.8 9.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.7 8.3 10.9 -1.0 35.8 35.7 8.0 9.3 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 8.0 8.4 10.7 -1.3 30.7 30.6 8.5 9.2 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 8.5 8.3 9.5 -1.3 27.9 29.3 8.7 9.7 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 8.0 8.1 9.8 -2.2 22.6 24.0 9.1 9.9 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 97 3 0 100 7.2 7.1 6.5 -2.5 16.8 17.8 8.4 8.7 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 7.4 8.1 10.2 -2.1 24.1 25.6 8.5 9.7 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 7.2 7.5 9.1 -1.2 32.7 32.9 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 5.6 6.0 6.4 -1.7 22.9 23.9 6.7 7.4 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 8.7 8.7 10.8 -1.6 28.1 29.4 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------