***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 51.1 46.6 45.6 92.3 51.1 47.6 19.6 44.9 54.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 44.4 40.0 45.9 101.0 57.7 52.5 23.6 37.4 54.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 28.6 42.7 46.2 95.7 51.9 48.8 22.9 40.3 71.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 44.7 79.0 51.8 98.9 54.7 49.9 36.2 75.8 88.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 34.4 48.8 44.5 92.0 47.9 46.9 30.9 50.7 63.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 34.6 52.3 52.6 101.7 53.3 50.6 31.3 50.8 69.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 42.3 41.4 45.8 99.1 56.6 52.0 19.1 35.6 50.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 72.5 70.7 53.4 98.4 54.1 50.7 48.8 68.5 79.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 33.5 50.7 49.7 101.1 53.0 51.6 30.2 47.4 62.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 59.3 54.7 52.5 96.4 50.6 49.6 40.4 54.7 63.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 34.2 51.0 47.9 97.5 51.4 50.2 32.3 48.3 60.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 30.5 48.4 47.6 98.1 52.5 50.6 35.9 45.0 57.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 29.9 38.7 48.8 94.9 47.1 48.7 32.7 41.7 68.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 71.4 53.5 51.5 90.2 47.2 46.1 42.3 63.6 86.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 27.0 52.9 50.1 95.2 52.8 48.0 28.6 49.9 63.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 28.2 39.9 47.0 94.5 48.6 48.6 28.1 40.5 56.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 35.0 43.4 48.1 106.2 64.3 55.6 15.7 30.3 43.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 60.2 54.1 55.0 94.7 49.2 48.9 44.8 54.3 59.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 54.2 48.6 45.6 99.6 55.4 51.4 27.2 44.7 62.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 62.5 59.0 64.8 98.3 53.2 50.2 40.9 55.0 76.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 28.4 39.6 49.4 102.0 54.5 51.8 32.2 37.9 56.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 40.0 47.9 49.9 104.9 62.0 55.1 20.6 35.1 50.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 47.8 40.9 45.2 95.9 50.3 49.2 28.3 39.8 65.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 58.1 48.2 49.8 92.1 48.2 47.4 33.5 48.6 72.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 28.6 30.4 42.0 79.3 40.3 40.5 24.9 45.1 71.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 33.8 42.6 48.5 95.7 46.5 47.6 33.1 48.3 52.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 48.4 36.5 44.2 85.1 45.6 43.6 25.5 40.8 57.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 29.7 51.1 50.1 98.2 53.4 49.4 31.1 48.3 60.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 80.5 71.7 57.7 94.5 49.4 48.4 53.3 71.8 99.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 42.5 39.4 45.8 98.4 53.2 50.9 21.7 33.6 60.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------