***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.2 9.9 82.4 54.7 47.0 0.9 8.9 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.3 4.8 9.7 83.7 56.4 48.7 0.5 3.0 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.1 13.8 10.2 85.5 56.5 47.6 1.0 7.4 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.8 5.7 9.7 76.0 55.8 46.9 2.2 4.8 11.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.2 7.1 9.0 78.3 54.3 45.1 1.9 4.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.4 4.2 10.2 78.6 54.9 46.4 0.8 3.5 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.5 4.1 9.6 80.9 56.3 47.8 0.7 2.8 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.7 11.0 84.9 55.7 47.0 6.1 7.8 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.0 10.1 86.1 55.7 48.1 2.6 6.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.3 9.5 11.0 85.7 54.0 47.5 3.8 8.0 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.3 9.3 80.3 55.4 46.8 2.4 7.3 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.5 7.5 9.4 79.5 56.0 46.2 2.1 6.4 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.4 10.1 79.5 56.0 47.4 1.3 7.0 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.5 16.9 12.9 90.8 58.0 48.5 7.6 13.1 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.8 4.4 9.4 68.1 60.8 46.3 0.9 3.5 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.3 5.9 9.3 77.3 56.2 46.8 2.9 4.1 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.5 3.4 9.9 86.5 57.0 50.9 0.6 1.8 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 6.7 12.4 88.9 53.1 47.8 3.9 6.1 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.3 10.0 86.0 57.0 48.5 1.2 8.9 19.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.7 13.4 15.1 92.0 57.8 48.3 3.9 6.6 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.0 10.1 87.6 56.2 47.9 1.8 4.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.2 6.1 10.8 90.0 57.9 50.7 0.6 4.9 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.0 13.1 10.5 88.4 57.8 48.2 1.9 8.1 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.2 11.7 87.8 55.0 47.6 3.4 10.0 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.6 4.9 9.9 77.5 54.3 44.4 1.2 1.8 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.0 8.2 10.0 78.5 56.8 45.4 0.9 6.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.1 10.1 80.1 54.1 46.2 1.4 4.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.3 8.2 9.1 71.8 57.6 46.8 2.0 5.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.0 13.5 13.1 89.6 54.0 47.8 4.9 11.6 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.3 9.8 82.0 56.8 48.1 0.8 6.2 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------