***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.7 14.1 110.0 67.1 54.8 1.4 5.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.3 11.7 13.2 113.0 70.1 55.4 0.2 3.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.8 13.8 12.7 98.9 61.8 50.1 1.7 3.8 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 15.9 19.4 14.3 107.5 66.4 54.8 6.4 12.3 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.3 12.1 11.3 90.3 60.9 45.0 3.9 8.6 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.8 12.0 14.6 108.3 64.0 51.6 1.3 4.8 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.6 12.4 13.3 116.0 69.1 56.0 0.2 5.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.7 18.2 12.7 94.3 61.5 51.4 5.9 10.6 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.0 14.8 14.1 114.5 65.7 55.4 2.8 9.3 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.7 16.7 12.6 94.4 59.4 50.1 2.5 12.6 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.3 13.3 12.5 94.6 60.8 48.9 1.6 4.6 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.5 7.2 11.7 93.1 60.5 50.4 2.8 4.8 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.1 12.4 13.2 100.8 64.6 52.9 2.6 5.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.1 10.5 14.0 92.2 60.0 50.3 3.8 7.2 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.9 14.5 12.1 93.1 67.1 50.5 2.4 10.0 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.7 10.9 12.7 96.1 61.7 49.4 1.4 4.3 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 7.7 12.8 13.6 118.8 71.1 58.7 0.3 6.1 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.3 13.2 92.3 58.1 50.3 2.4 12.1 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.9 11.6 12.8 105.8 67.5 53.3 1.5 3.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.1 17.1 15.6 95.0 62.8 51.1 7.4 14.1 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 11.6 14.4 15.7 126.0 69.6 59.0 1.7 10.1 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.5 14.3 13.2 104.6 67.7 55.5 0.4 6.2 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.3 10.6 12.9 101.5 65.4 53.1 0.8 4.8 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.3 13.1 13.0 93.0 58.5 50.6 2.0 8.9 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.7 7.3 10.9 78.5 53.5 40.0 1.0 6.0 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.5 8.2 12.6 92.0 61.7 48.9 2.5 5.1 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.3 8.2 13.1 96.2 61.3 48.9 1.5 5.2 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.0 17.8 12.4 96.8 66.8 51.5 2.3 10.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.8 20.9 14.1 91.3 58.7 49.2 6.6 15.5 27.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.4 10.9 13.4 110.2 68.4 54.0 0.3 4.6 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------