***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.8 12.5 13.3 111.9 65.2 51.8 2.2 4.9 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.9 11.2 14.4 137.9 71.0 58.1 1.3 5.2 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.0 10.3 14.8 133.0 70.8 54.1 3.6 5.9 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.9 27.1 18.3 134.5 71.3 53.4 2.5 14.1 24.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.0 13.1 15.3 125.2 67.4 51.3 2.6 8.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.1 21.2 16.7 125.8 68.8 54.7 2.4 7.1 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.9 12.0 14.7 133.0 70.2 57.6 2.1 3.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 19.1 22.2 18.8 127.5 68.3 55.3 6.9 14.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.7 14.2 15.8 125.7 67.7 50.7 2.2 7.1 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.9 22.4 18.1 123.5 67.0 53.1 3.3 12.2 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.5 20.2 17.0 134.5 70.3 53.5 3.4 11.2 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.0 18.8 17.2 136.9 71.4 56.6 4.1 5.5 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.8 15.1 15.4 116.6 68.5 53.6 2.2 8.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.0 16.2 13.8 102.8 64.1 52.4 5.7 8.8 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.7 19.4 20.0 154.7 76.6 57.3 0.9 5.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.2 13.1 15.7 124.5 68.6 53.1 3.4 9.0 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.5 10.1 15.5 142.4 73.1 61.2 1.6 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.1 18.3 17.2 113.6 64.7 52.9 4.2 8.0 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.5 14.2 137.1 71.4 58.0 4.9 6.8 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 14.1 18.1 19.0 115.5 64.6 55.7 4.5 11.7 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.2 18.4 15.0 122.4 66.8 50.8 3.3 6.7 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.8 12.2 15.4 141.8 74.1 62.4 1.2 2.6 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.4 12.0 13.0 122.0 67.7 56.1 4.6 8.3 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.0 13.9 14.9 114.9 66.7 52.7 3.3 8.8 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.5 11.5 13.5 102.3 62.2 48.4 4.3 7.4 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.3 16.0 15.4 132.3 73.3 59.2 1.3 6.0 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.9 14.5 13.0 103.5 62.6 49.5 2.7 6.4 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.4 27.9 19.4 147.4 74.7 56.2 2.4 7.3 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.8 25.7 17.1 111.4 63.0 53.5 9.7 14.8 29.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.8 11.5 14.4 137.6 73.0 57.1 1.9 5.2 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------