***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 19.9 19.6 19.0 -0.2 49.6 49.3 18.6 19.6 20.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 20.3 20.1 18.9 -0.3 48.1 48.1 19.0 20.1 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 20.5 20.3 19.3 -0.1 52.0 50.6 19.2 20.2 20.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.0 16.9 0.2 55.1 53.9 12.4 12.6 13.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 20.5 20.5 17.9 0.1 53.3 52.7 19.2 20.4 20.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 18.6 19.5 16.1 0.0 52.3 51.6 18.6 19.5 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 19.9 19.5 18.8 -0.3 48.8 48.2 18.9 19.6 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.7 16.6 0.3 58.6 56.0 9.8 10.6 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 20.3 20.2 18.5 0.2 56.0 54.3 19.3 20.0 20.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 20.0 20.0 17.4 0.2 57.9 55.0 19.2 19.8 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 20.4 20.8 18.2 0.3 59.3 55.4 19.1 20.1 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 19.9 20.0 17.6 0.4 60.5 57.3 19.0 19.6 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 20.8 20.9 17.7 0.3 59.4 55.9 19.5 20.5 21.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 20.8 20.9 18.4 0.2 57.6 55.4 19.9 20.6 21.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 19.8 19.7 18.2 0.3 55.5 55.5 18.7 19.6 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 21.3 21.6 17.9 0.3 61.0 56.0 20.1 21.0 21.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 19.7 19.5 18.5 -0.4 48.6 47.6 18.4 19.5 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 19.4 19.4 17.0 0.4 59.7 56.6 18.5 19.1 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 20.2 20.1 19.1 -0.2 51.2 50.2 19.1 20.0 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.4 15.0 0.4 60.4 57.4 15.4 16.1 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 20.2 20.1 19.0 -0.1 53.1 51.2 19.1 20.0 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 20.2 20.0 18.5 -0.4 48.1 47.3 19.2 20.0 20.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 20.4 20.4 19.5 0.2 57.8 55.1 19.3 20.2 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 20.4 20.7 18.5 0.3 59.2 55.9 19.4 20.1 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 19.7 19.6 17.7 -0.2 51.5 50.3 18.8 19.5 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 20.3 20.7 17.3 0.6 62.5 59.9 19.6 20.0 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 20.1 20.0 18.4 -0.1 51.7 50.6 19.2 19.9 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 20.0 20.1 17.6 0.2 55.9 54.8 18.6 19.7 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.5 16.3 0.3 59.7 56.5 14.4 15.2 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 20.2 19.9 19.0 -0.3 49.0 48.5 18.9 19.9 20.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------