***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 17.8 18.2 17.5 0.9 59.4 57.9 14.8 17.2 18.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 17.8 18.4 17.2 0.7 59.5 56.0 15.5 17.5 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 18.5 18.5 17.8 1.0 60.3 57.6 16.4 18.1 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.2 12.6 16.0 1.8 68.4 63.2 9.1 10.2 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 19.4 18.8 16.4 1.3 61.7 59.7 17.0 18.0 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 18.7 17.8 15.1 1.3 60.6 59.4 15.7 16.7 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.6 17.2 0.6 58.6 56.0 15.0 17.4 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 10.2 9.5 15.4 1.4 62.6 59.9 7.2 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 18.7 18.6 16.9 1.2 61.5 59.0 16.9 18.1 19.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 15.1 18.0 16.0 1.3 61.4 59.2 16.5 17.2 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 19.6 18.2 16.5 1.4 61.9 59.9 16.6 17.9 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 19.4 17.8 16.2 1.4 63.4 60.3 16.1 17.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 19.0 18.5 15.7 1.2 60.3 59.0 16.7 18.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.8 18.7 16.6 0.9 58.0 56.7 16.4 18.5 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.6 18.0 16.7 1.9 71.2 64.4 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 20.5 19.1 16.3 1.4 63.3 60.5 17.3 18.5 19.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.4 16.8 0.5 57.2 54.8 14.3 17.0 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 14.7 17.3 15.7 1.3 59.1 58.4 15.4 17.1 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.9 18.2 17.5 0.8 60.0 56.5 15.8 17.5 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 12.5 14.8 13.6 1.3 58.7 59.4 12.4 14.5 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 18.4 18.7 17.3 1.1 60.9 58.2 16.9 17.8 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 17.8 18.3 16.8 0.5 56.9 54.4 14.9 17.4 18.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.9 18.2 17.8 1.0 59.4 57.4 16.2 17.6 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.9 18.8 16.8 1.1 59.5 57.8 16.0 18.6 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.5 16.1 1.1 62.8 58.9 16.2 17.1 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 19.3 18.5 15.8 1.5 66.4 61.9 15.7 17.7 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 18.2 18.1 16.9 1.0 60.6 58.1 17.0 17.7 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 18.9 19.1 16.4 1.9 69.8 63.7 14.5 17.5 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.1 13.8 14.9 1.2 56.5 57.9 11.7 13.3 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 17.8 18.0 17.4 0.7 59.1 56.6 15.9 17.5 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------