***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 19.6 19.7 19.4 1.0 62.0 58.9 16.5 19.0 20.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 19.9 19.9 19.2 0.8 58.5 57.4 17.6 19.2 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 19.9 20.2 19.9 1.1 61.1 59.7 17.8 19.3 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.8 13.1 18.0 1.7 68.4 64.7 10.7 11.3 12.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 20.1 20.1 18.5 1.4 65.6 61.6 17.9 19.5 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 20.2 19.3 17.0 1.4 63.1 62.3 17.7 18.7 19.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 19.5 19.2 19.2 0.8 59.4 57.5 17.3 18.9 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 11.5 10.3 17.5 1.6 65.9 63.0 8.7 9.3 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 17.5 20.2 19.0 1.4 65.5 61.9 18.4 19.3 20.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 17.5 19.9 18.1 1.5 65.2 62.5 17.7 19.1 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 21.1 20.2 18.6 1.6 65.6 62.9 18.6 19.7 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 20.8 20.3 18.4 1.6 66.3 63.6 17.7 19.4 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 21.5 20.3 17.8 1.4 62.9 62.3 18.2 19.9 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 20.5 20.5 18.7 1.2 61.7 60.5 17.4 19.9 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 18.9 19.9 18.5 1.7 70.2 65.7 17.5 18.5 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 21.8 20.9 18.5 1.7 66.0 63.7 19.1 20.3 20.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 19.3 18.9 18.8 0.6 59.2 56.1 17.0 18.5 20.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.9 19.5 18.0 1.6 64.4 62.9 16.7 18.2 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 19.7 19.8 19.5 0.9 59.6 58.4 17.2 19.1 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.1 15.7 1.5 63.0 62.5 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 19.9 20.2 19.3 1.2 64.4 60.1 17.7 19.1 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 20.0 19.9 18.7 0.6 57.9 55.8 17.8 19.3 20.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 20.2 20.2 19.8 1.2 62.5 60.4 17.7 19.6 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 20.1 20.0 19.0 1.5 64.4 62.2 17.7 19.4 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 19.3 19.1 18.0 1.1 64.5 59.4 17.4 18.9 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 20.9 20.7 17.9 1.6 68.1 64.2 18.2 19.3 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 19.6 19.5 18.8 1.0 63.0 59.3 17.6 19.0 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 19.0 19.6 18.4 1.8 69.4 65.7 17.6 18.4 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.0 17.1 1.5 62.6 62.1 12.8 14.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 19.5 19.4 19.3 0.9 59.1 57.9 17.1 18.8 20.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------