***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.9 19.6 -0.7 43.4 44.5 20.2 21.1 21.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 21.8 21.0 19.7 -0.6 48.1 46.2 20.5 21.5 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.3 20.2 -0.3 49.5 48.4 20.5 21.3 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.3 13.5 17.4 -0.3 46.6 48.8 12.7 13.6 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.6 18.8 0.0 49.3 50.9 20.4 21.6 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 20.9 20.4 17.3 0.1 50.1 52.0 20.1 20.4 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.1 19.6 -0.6 45.5 45.5 20.5 21.3 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.0 18.0 0.6 58.0 56.4 10.3 11.5 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.9 19.7 0.2 53.4 53.2 20.0 21.6 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 21.6 21.8 18.8 0.6 57.6 55.7 19.4 21.3 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.0 19.5 0.4 54.4 54.4 20.2 21.9 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 21.5 21.6 18.8 0.6 57.0 56.4 19.2 21.1 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 22.6 22.4 19.0 0.3 53.0 53.3 20.7 22.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.0 19.9 0.6 55.2 55.5 20.7 21.7 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 21.4 20.4 18.8 -0.4 44.8 47.8 19.0 20.8 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 23.0 22.8 19.0 0.3 52.2 53.8 21.5 22.7 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 21.0 20.6 19.3 -0.6 47.5 45.8 20.1 20.7 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 21.5 21.4 18.4 0.8 60.1 57.5 18.9 21.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.4 20.0 -0.3 50.7 48.5 20.2 21.3 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 17.9 18.4 16.5 0.8 59.9 57.7 16.2 17.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.3 20.0 -0.2 49.5 49.1 20.0 21.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 22.1 21.6 19.4 -0.4 47.8 46.9 20.5 21.9 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.8 20.7 0.3 55.3 53.5 20.7 21.5 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.2 19.9 0.6 57.8 55.9 20.5 22.0 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 21.2 20.3 18.3 -0.7 42.3 44.5 19.9 20.7 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 21.7 21.4 18.2 0.5 55.2 54.8 20.4 21.4 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 21.7 20.9 19.0 -0.6 43.8 44.9 20.4 21.3 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 21.6 20.7 18.2 -0.2 46.6 49.9 19.7 21.0 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.9 17.8 0.8 58.9 57.2 14.8 17.4 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.1 19.7 -0.6 46.6 45.9 20.2 21.3 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------