***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 21.7 20.2 19.5 -2.1 30.3 30.1 20.3 20.9 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 20.1 20.6 19.4 -2.2 28.8 29.3 20.8 21.7 22.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 20.3 20.5 19.4 -2.3 29.0 29.5 21.0 22.0 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 12.8 12.3 16.2 -2.6 24.6 26.1 13.6 15.0 16.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 20.0 20.3 17.7 -2.4 27.3 27.6 21.1 22.5 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 18.5 18.3 15.2 -3.0 20.5 21.7 20.7 21.3 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 19.7 20.2 19.5 -2.1 29.0 29.5 20.4 21.2 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 9.3 9.9 15.7 -2.4 26.3 28.2 10.4 11.7 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 19.9 20.2 18.6 -2.2 28.0 29.6 21.1 21.9 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 19.5 19.2 16.7 -2.4 27.3 28.3 20.4 21.6 23.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 20.2 19.6 18.1 -2.3 27.5 29.3 21.2 22.4 23.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 19.4 18.9 16.9 -2.1 27.2 30.2 20.6 21.9 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 20.5 20.5 18.2 -1.9 29.2 32.3 21.4 22.4 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 20.3 20.8 18.5 -1.9 33.4 32.9 20.7 22.4 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 20.5 20.4 18.9 -2.1 26.8 29.6 20.7 22.1 23.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 20.5 20.6 17.7 -2.3 25.9 28.6 21.9 22.7 24.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 19.6 19.9 19.1 -2.1 29.0 30.1 20.1 21.1 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 18.7 19.4 15.9 -2.3 28.5 29.1 19.6 21.0 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 19.7 20.3 19.5 -2.1 30.6 30.6 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 14.8 15.1 14.2 -2.1 28.4 29.9 15.5 17.5 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 19.8 19.9 19.2 -2.3 27.5 28.3 21.0 21.9 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 19.8 20.4 19.0 -2.2 27.7 29.2 20.8 21.5 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 22.4 20.8 19.8 -1.7 34.9 35.2 20.7 21.7 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 19.8 20.0 18.2 -2.1 31.1 31.1 20.3 22.0 23.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 19.7 20.0 18.4 -2.1 29.7 29.7 20.2 21.3 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 22.9 20.9 17.2 -1.3 32.7 36.3 20.9 22.3 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 21.9 20.5 19.1 -1.9 31.4 31.2 20.5 21.1 23.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 19.8 19.5 17.2 -2.6 22.9 25.4 20.4 22.7 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 14.3 14.7 15.4 -2.1 29.0 30.4 15.2 17.0 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 19.6 20.1 19.5 -2.2 29.3 29.6 20.4 21.3 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------