***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.1 10.9 0.3 56.6 55.5 7.9 8.1 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.5 10.6 0.3 57.5 56.4 7.5 8.1 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.5 10.9 0.2 56.1 55.0 10.1 10.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 5.8 5.4 8.0 0.0 48.2 50.2 5.1 5.5 6.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.0 7.9 8.7 0.2 53.5 53.9 6.8 7.7 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.1 7.1 6.7 0.2 54.8 54.7 6.4 7.0 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.4 10.5 0.2 55.4 54.2 7.6 8.1 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.9 3.0 6.7 0.2 53.7 53.9 2.1 2.7 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.0 9.0 0.3 59.1 57.0 8.0 8.5 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.4 7.5 0.2 55.3 54.9 7.6 8.1 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.0 8.2 0.2 55.9 54.9 7.0 7.9 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.1 7.4 0.2 53.0 53.8 6.1 7.1 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.6 7.2 0.1 50.9 52.4 6.8 7.6 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.9 8.8 0.3 57.5 56.3 8.1 8.5 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 8.8 8.9 9.4 0.3 55.8 55.3 8.4 8.6 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.7 7.6 0.1 51.4 52.5 8.2 8.7 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.6 10.3 0.3 56.9 55.7 7.6 8.4 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.4 6.8 0.2 54.3 54.8 6.7 7.2 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.3 10.6 0.4 59.0 57.5 7.6 8.0 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.2 5.2 0.2 52.9 53.3 2.8 4.1 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.2 10.1 0.2 55.8 54.5 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.6 10.3 0.2 57.9 55.6 6.9 7.4 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.3 10.6 0.4 61.0 59.0 7.3 7.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.1 8.7 0.3 57.3 56.2 7.5 7.8 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.8 9.9 0.3 57.4 56.3 7.7 8.7 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.9 6.9 0.1 50.8 52.0 7.0 7.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.7 10.4 0.3 56.5 55.3 7.8 8.4 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 7.3 7.2 8.3 0.1 50.4 51.8 6.8 7.2 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.7 6.3 0.2 55.5 54.8 5.5 5.8 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.7 10.8 0.3 56.7 55.6 7.8 8.5 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------