***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.7 6.5 9.1 0.4 56.5 54.4 5.1 6.1 7.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.5 6.1 8.8 0.5 56.2 54.8 5.1 6.0 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.9 9.3 9.1 0.5 56.2 55.3 7.4 8.1 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.7 6.3 0.5 53.7 55.4 2.7 3.5 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.7 6.5 0.4 52.8 54.2 4.2 5.4 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.2 4.7 4.9 0.5 52.3 55.6 3.5 4.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.8 6.3 8.8 0.4 55.8 54.6 4.5 6.1 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -0.4 1.1 4.9 0.4 54.0 54.8 -0.1 1.0 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.7 6.7 6.9 0.4 54.3 54.6 5.3 6.2 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.3 5.5 0.3 53.7 54.3 4.4 6.2 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.4 5.9 5.9 0.3 52.3 54.1 3.9 5.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.1 5.1 5.4 0.4 53.6 55.0 3.3 4.9 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.1 5.1 0.3 50.8 53.4 3.3 5.1 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.1 7.0 6.9 0.5 57.0 55.2 5.3 6.7 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.5 7.5 0.7 56.8 57.3 4.6 6.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.7 5.6 0.4 51.3 54.1 5.3 6.7 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.3 8.6 0.5 56.1 55.0 5.1 6.0 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.6 5.6 4.8 0.3 54.2 53.9 3.7 5.3 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.6 8.8 0.5 56.4 55.1 5.0 6.4 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.5 2.1 3.3 0.3 50.6 52.8 0.1 2.1 3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.3 8.2 0.4 54.9 54.5 4.9 6.1 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.9 5.7 8.4 0.4 54.7 54.8 4.2 5.4 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.6 6.7 8.6 0.5 58.0 55.6 4.6 6.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.2 6.6 0.4 56.7 55.3 4.8 5.9 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.0 7.8 0.5 57.0 54.6 5.4 6.6 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.8 5.3 4.9 0.4 51.3 54.0 4.2 5.2 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.9 8.6 0.5 56.5 54.6 4.9 6.6 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.1 6.5 0.6 54.5 56.1 2.9 4.9 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 2.9 4.9 4.3 0.3 53.8 53.4 3.4 4.4 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.7 8.9 0.4 56.4 54.6 5.7 6.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------