***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 8.0 8.4 10.8 0.8 63.1 59.0 6.9 7.6 8.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.8 8.3 10.4 0.8 61.9 59.6 6.8 7.4 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.0 10.1 10.8 0.7 63.1 59.8 9.0 9.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.7 8.0 0.8 65.3 60.2 4.1 5.3 5.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 7.9 7.5 8.3 0.7 63.9 60.1 5.6 6.4 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 7.2 6.8 6.7 0.9 62.9 61.9 5.2 6.0 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.4 10.5 0.8 64.1 59.4 6.8 7.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 3.2 2.9 6.7 0.9 64.1 62.7 1.2 1.9 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.3 8.7 0.8 63.5 60.6 7.1 7.7 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 8.4 7.7 7.4 0.9 63.2 61.6 6.8 7.5 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 8.1 7.6 7.7 0.8 64.4 61.1 6.2 6.9 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 6.9 6.6 7.2 0.9 64.5 62.5 5.4 5.8 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 6.8 7.5 6.9 0.9 61.5 61.1 5.8 6.5 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.7 8.8 1.0 65.5 62.2 7.3 8.0 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 8.9 8.8 9.0 0.8 66.0 61.3 7.3 8.0 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 8.8 8.4 7.3 0.8 63.4 61.1 7.3 7.7 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.6 10.2 0.8 62.9 59.4 7.0 7.6 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 7.6 7.3 6.7 1.0 64.7 62.7 5.9 6.6 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.9 8.3 10.5 0.8 61.6 60.0 6.8 7.6 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 4.0 3.9 5.3 1.1 64.8 63.7 1.9 2.8 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.5 9.9 0.8 63.7 60.0 6.0 6.8 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.7 10.0 0.7 59.9 58.4 5.8 6.8 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.6 10.4 0.9 62.2 61.0 6.7 7.3 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 8.0 7.9 8.4 0.9 64.5 62.1 6.3 7.4 7.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.8 8.5 9.5 0.8 63.2 59.4 6.5 7.3 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 7.9 7.5 6.7 0.9 61.8 61.5 6.3 6.6 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.5 8.6 10.2 0.8 64.3 59.1 6.5 6.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 7.2 7.1 8.2 0.8 66.1 61.4 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 6.8 6.3 6.3 1.0 65.6 63.5 4.6 5.8 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.0 8.2 10.6 0.7 62.2 59.2 6.9 7.6 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------