***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 10.0 9.8 12.3 -0.1 46.2 46.9 9.4 9.9 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 10.4 10.2 11.9 -0.1 46.6 47.3 9.0 10.3 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 12.3 11.7 12.2 -0.3 41.0 43.2 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.7 6.8 9.3 -0.7 36.8 38.3 6.7 7.1 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 9.9 9.0 10.5 -0.3 42.1 43.7 7.8 9.7 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 8.7 8.2 8.0 -0.2 43.7 45.2 7.2 8.4 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 10.2 9.9 11.8 -0.4 43.2 44.2 9.3 10.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.2 3.6 7.8 -0.6 37.0 38.3 3.3 3.9 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 10.0 9.7 10.7 0.0 43.9 47.6 9.2 9.8 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 9.9 9.3 8.9 -0.3 40.8 42.9 9.0 9.7 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 9.7 9.0 10.1 -0.2 41.4 44.0 8.6 9.5 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.0 7.7 8.7 -0.6 36.1 37.4 7.4 8.7 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.7 8.2 8.8 -0.5 37.1 39.2 8.0 9.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.2 10.0 -0.3 41.1 42.7 9.9 10.3 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 10.8 10.4 11.5 0.0 46.8 48.4 9.2 10.6 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 10.7 9.7 9.3 -0.5 37.5 39.3 9.6 10.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 10.0 9.7 11.4 -0.3 46.2 46.8 9.2 9.8 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 9.3 8.2 8.1 -0.5 38.8 40.9 8.0 9.0 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 93 7 100 10.1 9.9 12.0 0.0 47.4 48.3 9.3 10.0 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.4 3.8 6.2 -0.8 33.6 35.6 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 9.9 9.5 11.5 -0.3 41.3 43.5 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 9.4 9.1 11.7 -0.2 46.4 46.7 8.4 9.3 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 9.7 9.6 12.0 0.0 47.4 48.4 9.3 9.6 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 9.9 9.5 10.1 -0.3 41.4 43.0 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 10.4 10.1 11.9 0.1 47.7 49.1 9.6 10.3 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.6 8.0 -0.7 35.4 36.7 8.5 9.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 10.8 10.0 11.9 -0.2 45.1 45.9 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.2 7.8 9.8 -0.5 39.4 41.3 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 8.0 7.5 7.4 -0.5 38.1 40.6 7.2 7.6 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 10.4 10.1 12.1 -0.2 44.1 45.9 9.8 10.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------