***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 63.6 70.0 63.3 134.8 72.3 66.1 19.7 51.1 62.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 52.9 54.0 58.2 132.4 71.6 64.6 24.8 38.8 50.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 65.7 74.0 63.5 136.0 75.6 66.4 30.3 48.7 67.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 93.7 98.9 71.5 142.7 75.7 68.8 35.6 73.7 86.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 66.9 76.0 66.9 142.9 77.4 69.6 30.9 50.2 61.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 71.3 81.7 73.1 145.6 80.3 70.0 33.5 51.6 63.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 42.2 57.0 56.6 127.8 71.7 62.3 19.1 36.0 49.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 78.9 88.7 79.7 151.2 84.0 72.9 48.8 69.6 77.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 62.9 72.1 67.0 139.4 79.0 68.6 30.2 43.9 61.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 69.8 76.7 76.0 144.8 82.0 70.8 36.3 54.1 64.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 67.7 76.1 70.4 150.1 81.0 72.3 33.2 47.5 56.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 55.7 62.2 73.2 153.5 81.7 72.8 35.7 43.8 57.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 62.4 73.4 73.8 149.5 78.3 70.8 32.4 41.5 67.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 91.5 99.2 77.7 134.9 76.9 68.8 42.3 71.1 89.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 63.7 74.6 71.6 149.5 80.3 69.3 28.5 46.2 62.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 59.8 71.2 70.4 148.2 78.6 71.0 29.8 39.8 55.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 43.1 45.7 56.3 127.8 72.5 61.8 15.1 31.8 43.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 76.6 91.7 80.4 142.1 81.4 70.5 36.1 52.9 62.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 62.6 70.3 60.5 135.3 72.9 66.2 27.2 44.7 62.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 80.0 96.0 95.0 148.9 85.1 73.4 40.9 53.9 76.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 58.2 61.6 64.8 137.6 76.5 67.2 33.2 41.0 55.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 49.4 53.7 60.1 129.3 73.6 63.3 22.2 36.5 46.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 59.4 67.6 64.1 136.9 75.0 67.7 29.1 41.7 65.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 74.9 88.9 73.6 137.7 78.8 68.3 33.0 49.8 74.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 67.8 77.4 68.9 135.5 74.4 66.7 28.0 47.3 65.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 67.1 91.3 76.8 151.3 82.6 71.4 34.0 48.2 54.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 61.1 65.3 66.0 132.7 72.5 65.5 29.7 44.4 63.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 62.2 69.6 71.2 150.2 79.2 70.2 31.0 48.0 60.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 106.1 131.9 84.7 142.7 81.7 71.5 51.9 70.8 104.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 53.7 59.9 59.5 132.7 71.5 65.1 21.0 39.9 53.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------