***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 16.1 12.7 113.8 66.7 53.2 2.7 6.2 15.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.7 7.6 11.2 107.1 64.1 53.2 0.5 4.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.5 16.7 12.8 111.2 67.9 53.4 1.3 8.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 16.8 14.9 110.8 67.1 54.5 3.2 6.7 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.1 14.3 12.9 103.1 64.7 52.9 1.7 8.2 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.6 10.5 14.9 115.1 64.9 53.2 1.0 3.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.9 7.2 10.4 98.8 62.1 51.6 0.9 3.8 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.5 16.3 14.4 104.1 63.0 53.7 5.3 10.2 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.9 11.0 12.5 98.0 61.9 51.2 4.5 7.8 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.4 13.6 99.0 61.1 51.9 2.8 10.9 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 13.4 12.5 101.3 63.6 52.4 2.0 10.0 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.3 13.3 106.3 63.9 53.8 1.6 7.6 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.2 12.0 14.5 110.0 63.4 53.8 1.1 8.0 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.8 27.2 15.5 107.9 67.1 53.6 7.8 14.7 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.5 7.4 15.2 112.2 69.0 53.9 1.0 3.1 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.9 13.6 13.4 105.7 64.4 52.3 1.3 6.6 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.9 10.8 99.1 62.4 51.3 0.6 1.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.3 16.4 15.1 103.1 61.9 52.4 3.8 7.9 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.9 13.6 12.0 111.3 66.7 53.4 3.3 9.3 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.0 16.9 19.5 112.1 64.6 55.1 2.9 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.2 14.7 12.2 103.3 65.4 51.9 2.0 6.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.0 10.6 11.7 102.8 63.5 51.1 0.6 5.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.7 16.0 12.8 111.2 69.5 52.9 2.4 8.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.3 14.4 105.0 65.7 52.0 3.4 13.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.3 14.7 13.6 110.4 66.3 53.3 1.4 4.0 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.7 15.8 116.9 62.8 53.8 0.5 6.1 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.9 15.3 12.8 110.1 65.2 52.7 2.4 5.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.5 11.3 14.4 109.8 67.7 53.2 3.0 5.3 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.9 22.2 16.3 106.5 62.9 53.5 6.1 13.4 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.2 12.7 11.7 110.7 66.4 53.2 1.2 6.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------