***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.1 5.6 13.3 109.1 65.4 54.6 0.4 2.7 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.8 10.0 12.4 106.4 64.7 51.5 1.7 4.2 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.7 13.6 12.7 107.8 66.3 52.3 0.6 6.9 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.2 18.4 12.9 110.2 67.6 55.0 3.0 9.6 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 1.9 18.6 12.1 107.4 68.0 54.1 1.6 3.8 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.6 20.6 13.1 110.2 67.1 53.5 3.9 8.3 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.0 13.2 12.4 107.1 65.5 51.3 0.7 2.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.3 22.3 12.3 104.1 66.5 53.8 7.6 12.4 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.8 17.9 12.6 105.6 67.7 52.8 1.4 7.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.4 18.4 12.8 103.5 66.3 52.8 2.2 9.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.2 15.0 11.2 104.4 67.4 53.5 1.0 6.6 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.4 16.2 11.1 103.0 67.2 53.5 1.2 6.5 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.0 20.3 12.4 105.5 67.2 54.1 2.5 5.9 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.9 16.9 13.8 94.1 63.2 48.1 1.5 6.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.4 15.6 13.6 125.0 72.7 55.2 0.4 2.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.5 12.4 11.8 108.3 67.8 54.6 1.1 5.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.7 6.0 12.3 108.9 65.7 51.2 0.3 1.1 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 6.8 19.8 14.2 106.8 67.3 52.1 2.8 14.6 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.4 9.5 12.4 106.4 64.9 51.2 0.6 2.0 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.7 14.8 17.0 114.3 68.4 55.0 5.4 9.6 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.0 20.2 13.0 110.2 68.9 54.0 4.0 8.3 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.1 12.5 102.4 63.3 49.9 0.1 4.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.4 12.6 104.8 64.9 50.3 0.4 2.5 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.2 16.9 13.4 101.0 64.8 50.0 1.6 6.6 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.9 17.2 14.4 113.4 68.4 55.9 1.7 8.1 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.1 21.4 13.0 106.3 67.3 54.1 5.7 10.0 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.7 12.2 14.0 110.1 66.4 54.9 1.4 4.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.1 16.8 12.3 114.2 69.8 54.5 1.0 2.3 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.7 25.5 14.8 107.4 67.2 51.8 5.0 17.8 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.9 10.8 12.5 105.0 65.2 51.6 0.8 3.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------