***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 7.1 9.3 18.2 136.9 75.8 60.2 1.0 2.6 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 10.4 13.8 16.8 145.3 75.3 64.2 0.4 3.0 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 12.5 17.3 18.2 142.7 74.8 61.3 2.6 4.4 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.6 23.0 18.5 137.4 72.4 57.4 4.6 12.3 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.4 21.5 17.6 139.7 72.9 57.0 2.6 9.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.1 20.7 18.5 126.7 70.6 56.1 1.2 3.3 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 11.0 15.0 16.9 145.6 74.2 62.6 0.3 3.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.2 24.1 20.9 148.2 77.0 57.1 5.8 14.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.0 16.9 17.9 142.0 74.2 56.8 1.6 6.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 21.3 19.7 145.4 75.9 56.9 2.6 10.7 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.0 18.1 18.7 138.3 73.3 55.7 2.0 11.3 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.1 17.1 19.4 146.1 75.8 56.5 1.2 6.5 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.6 18.0 18.1 133.1 71.6 54.4 2.1 5.4 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 18.4 27.6 22.8 153.9 80.1 63.9 3.1 6.3 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 15.6 17.7 137.6 75.1 56.4 2.0 6.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.1 19.7 18.2 135.5 72.2 54.8 0.6 2.7 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 11.0 15.2 17.1 154.2 77.2 63.1 0.3 3.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 20.5 22.0 152.5 78.1 59.9 3.0 10.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 12.5 16.2 17.4 146.5 75.4 64.7 2.0 3.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 15.3 23.6 26.4 160.9 80.8 61.8 5.3 13.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.3 12.4 17.8 139.4 74.2 58.4 1.9 8.1 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 11.5 15.9 18.8 158.6 78.7 64.7 0.7 4.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 16.6 22.7 18.9 155.0 78.0 65.7 1.5 3.8 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.4 19.6 20.9 149.4 78.9 61.0 3.7 8.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.7 18.7 128.7 70.5 57.7 1.8 3.7 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 1.4 16.1 19.3 134.0 73.7 55.8 1.2 2.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.1 10.0 18.8 131.4 73.1 59.3 0.9 2.8 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.4 18.1 17.3 136.3 73.6 55.4 3.8 10.6 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.8 31.4 24.3 156.4 79.4 61.9 6.0 11.6 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 11.2 12.2 17.4 143.3 74.0 63.6 0.9 4.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------