***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 18.7 31.0 19.1 184.7 83.3 71.5 2.3 6.0 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 11.7 15.0 17.8 173.5 80.4 68.6 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.7 30.5 19.8 186.4 81.4 70.8 3.5 6.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 26.6 45.4 25.2 218.8 86.6 71.7 3.3 13.1 24.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 18.8 35.7 24.2 233.7 88.6 75.6 4.0 9.4 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 23.7 37.2 26.6 246.7 90.3 75.8 2.7 7.1 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 9.3 12.2 16.9 160.0 78.0 66.4 2.2 3.7 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 30.8 49.8 32.1 246.3 91.3 77.2 6.5 13.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 16.2 30.1 24.1 222.8 89.5 75.5 1.8 10.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 25.3 35.6 29.9 233.0 90.9 77.0 2.9 12.4 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 19.9 36.4 28.0 273.8 91.7 77.4 3.3 9.9 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 19.8 33.8 29.3 266.4 91.1 77.5 3.3 5.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 22.2 31.0 28.8 265.7 89.1 77.6 3.7 7.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 20.8 32.1 25.6 186.4 83.6 74.2 5.5 11.6 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 14.8 39.2 25.2 237.7 86.8 70.7 2.0 5.9 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 17.3 25.1 27.0 257.4 88.9 76.5 3.3 7.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 10.7 12.2 16.1 149.4 75.1 63.9 1.7 6.3 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 20.9 44.3 29.1 206.1 89.4 76.3 3.7 9.1 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 11.7 16.8 18.7 179.7 81.2 69.9 4.0 6.1 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 26.1 47.7 32.0 213.9 88.3 77.5 6.1 10.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 17.2 26.3 21.8 203.8 86.5 73.2 2.6 9.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 12.1 13.6 17.1 155.3 77.5 64.8 2.2 8.6 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 16.7 22.0 19.8 178.4 82.0 71.1 3.9 8.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 20.1 39.1 24.9 199.4 86.5 74.5 2.6 8.3 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 19.9 27.2 22.2 196.8 84.2 72.7 4.7 9.9 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 19.6 35.9 28.7 271.0 91.5 76.7 2.1 7.9 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 23.0 32.0 20.3 184.4 82.8 71.7 3.3 12.4 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 17.3 41.9 27.1 253.1 88.9 73.4 1.9 7.3 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 37.8 56.4 29.2 199.1 87.6 76.1 6.0 10.8 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 13.6 17.4 17.9 175.0 81.4 69.4 2.5 5.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------