***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 18.9 18.7 17.8 -1.5 25.4 29.3 18.8 20.1 20.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 19.3 19.0 17.7 -1.6 24.2 29.1 19.4 20.4 20.9 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 19.1 19.0 17.9 -1.6 23.6 28.5 19.5 20.3 20.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 11.7 12.2 15.2 -1.6 24.5 28.8 12.6 13.1 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 19.1 19.1 15.9 -2.0 20.4 24.2 19.7 20.6 21.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 18.5 18.5 14.5 -1.8 21.8 27.6 19.2 19.7 20.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 19.0 18.9 17.7 -1.5 25.1 29.8 19.2 20.0 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 9.1 8.6 14.2 -2.3 15.4 22.0 9.9 10.6 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 19.1 19.2 16.4 -2.1 19.6 23.8 19.6 20.5 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 18.5 18.5 15.1 -2.2 17.4 23.0 19.6 20.1 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 19.1 18.9 15.9 -2.1 19.1 24.2 19.5 20.4 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 18.6 18.6 15.2 -2.1 17.0 23.2 19.3 19.7 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 19.2 19.2 15.5 -2.1 19.0 24.4 19.9 20.9 21.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 19.1 18.7 16.3 -2.0 18.5 24.5 20.1 21.0 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 18.9 18.6 16.9 -1.2 27.8 33.2 19.0 20.0 20.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 20.0 20.0 15.7 -1.9 20.7 25.8 20.5 21.6 21.9 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 18.6 18.7 17.3 -1.7 23.0 28.0 18.8 19.6 20.2 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 17.9 17.5 14.5 -2.3 15.8 22.4 18.8 19.5 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 18.9 18.6 17.8 -1.6 23.8 28.7 19.4 20.1 20.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 14.9 14.0 12.3 -2.5 12.6 20.1 15.6 16.4 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 19.0 18.9 17.2 -2.0 20.0 24.7 19.6 20.4 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 19.2 19.0 17.2 -1.8 21.7 26.1 19.6 20.2 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 19.2 19.1 17.8 -1.6 24.1 28.7 19.6 20.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 19.1 18.8 16.3 -2.0 18.8 24.8 19.8 20.5 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 18.5 18.3 16.2 -1.8 21.6 26.2 19.3 19.8 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 18.9 19.0 15.0 -1.9 18.9 26.1 20.0 20.2 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 18.9 18.6 17.0 -1.6 24.2 28.2 19.6 20.1 20.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 18.8 18.4 15.9 -1.6 25.4 29.9 19.2 20.1 20.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 14.2 13.6 13.7 -2.4 14.0 21.0 14.8 15.5 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 18.9 18.7 17.8 -1.5 25.3 29.6 19.4 20.1 20.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------