***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 15.3 17.5 17.1 0.0 46.1 48.7 15.1 17.9 19.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 15.9 17.7 17.0 -0.1 45.5 48.3 16.6 18.3 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 15.5 18.1 17.4 0.0 45.6 48.7 17.7 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.7 10.8 14.9 0.1 46.9 49.2 9.4 11.1 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 15.7 17.8 15.4 -0.2 43.2 47.1 17.1 18.1 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.9 14.1 -0.2 41.5 47.6 15.2 17.4 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 15.5 17.4 17.0 0.0 45.7 48.8 16.5 17.6 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.6 7.8 14.2 -0.4 39.3 45.9 7.3 9.0 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 16.0 17.9 15.9 -0.3 42.1 46.4 17.5 18.5 19.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 15.4 17.4 14.9 -0.4 39.9 46.1 16.7 17.9 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 15.6 17.7 15.3 -0.3 41.6 47.0 16.8 18.3 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 15.0 17.3 14.9 -0.4 40.2 46.4 16.3 17.9 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 16.0 17.6 14.6 -0.5 38.7 46.0 16.3 18.6 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 15.4 18.2 15.9 -0.3 40.7 46.5 18.0 18.7 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.3 15.5 0.2 51.6 50.5 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 16.4 18.5 15.1 -0.2 42.2 47.3 17.0 18.9 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 15.1 17.0 16.7 -0.1 45.3 47.7 15.4 17.4 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 14.7 17.1 14.7 -0.3 39.0 46.2 16.0 17.9 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 15.4 17.9 17.2 -0.1 46.0 48.3 16.9 18.0 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 11.7 13.7 12.5 -0.5 38.5 44.6 12.9 14.4 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 15.5 17.9 16.5 -0.2 43.5 46.9 17.7 18.0 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 15.7 18.1 16.7 -0.2 46.0 47.3 15.7 18.4 18.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 15.6 18.2 17.3 -0.1 45.4 48.4 16.6 18.3 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 15.6 18.0 16.0 -0.2 40.9 47.1 17.7 18.6 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 15.1 17.1 15.4 -0.2 44.2 47.3 16.5 17.3 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 15.4 16.8 14.6 -0.2 40.5 47.2 16.3 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 15.4 17.5 16.3 -0.1 45.2 48.2 17.2 17.9 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.1 15.2 0.1 48.2 49.7 15.6 16.1 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 10.5 13.3 14.0 -0.4 38.4 45.5 13.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 15.6 17.8 17.1 0.0 46.0 48.9 16.9 17.9 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------