***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 19.9 18.9 18.1 -0.7 43.1 45.1 18.6 19.4 20.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 17.8 19.6 18.0 -0.7 43.8 44.5 18.8 19.8 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 17.8 19.4 18.3 -0.7 42.0 44.1 18.6 20.0 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.4 15.8 -0.9 40.2 42.9 11.2 12.1 13.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 18.3 18.9 16.3 -1.1 38.0 40.8 18.5 19.8 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 17.5 18.5 15.0 -0.9 41.7 43.5 17.9 19.3 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 17.4 19.1 18.1 -0.6 43.6 45.3 18.7 19.3 20.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.8 9.2 15.1 -1.1 37.7 40.8 9.1 10.3 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 18.4 18.7 16.7 -1.2 37.4 40.5 18.5 19.8 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 18.1 18.9 15.8 -1.2 38.0 40.6 18.6 19.8 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 18.3 19.5 16.3 -1.1 39.8 41.2 19.0 19.8 21.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 18.3 19.0 16.0 -1.1 38.4 41.6 18.0 19.8 20.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 20.9 19.5 15.7 -1.0 40.8 42.5 18.8 20.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 18.3 19.4 16.7 -1.0 40.2 42.0 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 19.5 18.3 16.5 -0.7 42.7 44.8 17.1 18.9 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 19.4 20.3 16.1 -1.0 40.9 42.6 19.6 20.6 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 17.1 18.7 17.7 -0.7 43.3 44.2 18.5 18.8 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 17.2 17.9 15.5 -1.1 39.4 41.3 17.4 18.7 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 17.7 19.0 18.1 -0.7 43.3 44.1 18.7 19.5 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 14.6 15.0 13.4 -1.1 38.4 41.1 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 18.1 18.7 17.4 -1.0 38.3 41.6 18.3 19.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 17.8 19.1 17.6 -0.8 41.5 43.1 18.9 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 20.6 19.5 18.2 -0.8 43.0 43.8 18.8 20.0 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 18.4 19.3 16.8 -1.0 41.0 42.2 18.6 19.9 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 19.4 18.8 16.3 -0.9 41.1 43.3 18.4 19.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 20.4 19.6 15.9 -0.7 41.6 45.3 19.4 19.8 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 19.8 18.9 17.4 -0.7 43.0 45.0 18.6 19.2 20.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 17.5 18.4 16.1 -0.9 40.5 43.2 17.2 19.0 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 13.3 14.5 14.8 -1.1 38.4 40.9 13.6 15.2 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 17.5 19.1 18.1 -0.7 43.2 44.9 18.5 19.3 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------