***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 19.8 20.4 18.8 -1.1 38.4 42.5 20.2 21.4 22.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 20.2 21.0 18.7 -1.2 38.5 41.8 20.7 21.5 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 20.3 21.2 18.9 -1.1 37.6 42.6 21.1 21.4 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 12.2 13.7 16.4 -0.8 40.1 44.4 13.4 14.8 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 19.9 21.0 17.2 -1.2 35.5 41.5 20.8 21.8 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 19.0 20.5 15.9 -0.8 39.0 45.3 20.2 20.6 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 20.1 20.6 18.7 -1.1 38.8 42.3 20.5 21.3 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 10.2 10.6 15.5 -1.3 33.5 41.0 10.5 11.7 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 20.1 21.2 17.7 -1.3 33.9 41.1 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 19.5 20.7 16.4 -1.3 34.3 41.4 20.7 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 20.4 21.1 17.4 -1.2 35.7 41.8 20.8 22.3 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 19.4 20.2 16.5 -1.3 34.6 41.6 20.1 21.2 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 20.5 21.2 16.9 -1.3 35.8 41.3 21.0 21.9 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 20.4 21.6 17.4 -1.4 33.8 40.2 21.6 22.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 18.9 20.5 18.3 -0.5 44.1 46.6 19.9 20.7 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 21.0 22.0 17.1 -1.2 36.7 42.3 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 19.9 20.0 18.2 -1.3 37.6 40.7 19.8 20.9 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 19.4 20.0 15.7 -1.4 34.2 40.8 19.9 21.5 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 20.1 20.9 18.8 -1.2 37.7 41.7 20.7 21.3 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 16.6 16.4 13.6 -1.6 31.8 39.0 16.4 18.0 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 19.9 21.2 18.3 -1.3 35.3 40.5 21.0 21.8 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.5 20.3 18.1 -1.5 34.5 38.9 20.3 21.8 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 20.4 21.0 18.8 -1.1 37.6 42.1 20.8 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 20.1 21.1 17.5 -1.3 35.6 41.6 20.9 21.9 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 19.3 20.3 17.3 -1.3 36.4 40.9 20.0 20.9 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 20.2 20.7 16.3 -1.0 35.0 43.1 20.6 21.4 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 19.9 20.8 18.0 -1.2 36.7 41.7 19.9 21.6 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 19.4 20.5 17.2 -0.7 41.1 45.1 20.1 21.7 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 15.2 16.2 14.9 -1.6 32.9 39.5 16.2 17.2 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 20.1 20.8 18.8 -1.1 37.8 42.2 20.4 21.5 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------