***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 18.8 17.0 17.2 -4.4 8.2 10.0 20.9 21.6 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 97 3 0 100 19.7 17.7 17.1 -4.5 8.0 10.1 21.4 22.2 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 95 5 0 100 19.6 17.1 17.0 -4.7 7.0 9.4 21.1 22.7 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 12.4 11.0 13.9 -4.8 7.8 9.4 14.3 15.8 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 19.6 16.8 14.6 -5.5 4.0 5.8 21.3 23.2 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 18.9 16.9 13.0 -5.3 4.8 7.5 20.8 21.8 23.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 19.1 17.8 17.1 -4.4 8.4 10.6 21.0 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 8.5 5.5 12.0 -6.2 1.7 4.3 10.7 12.4 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 19.1 16.4 15.4 -5.5 3.2 5.7 21.0 22.5 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 99 1 0 100 19.2 15.3 13.2 -6.0 2.5 5.0 20.3 22.0 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 98 2 0 100 19.3 16.0 14.8 -5.6 3.4 5.6 20.9 22.8 24.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 99 1 0 100 18.9 15.2 13.4 -5.9 2.5 5.0 20.3 22.1 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 19.6 17.0 14.8 -5.5 2.8 5.7 21.0 23.0 24.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 99 1 0 100 18.9 16.0 15.1 -5.3 3.6 6.2 21.0 22.2 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 20.3 18.7 17.1 -4.0 9.8 12.2 21.6 22.9 23.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 99 1 0 100 20.0 18.3 14.7 -5.4 3.9 6.4 21.7 23.6 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 19.2 17.2 16.5 -4.6 6.7 9.1 20.9 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 18.4 15.3 12.1 -6.3 2.4 4.4 20.1 20.8 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 19.0 17.1 17.0 -4.5 7.6 9.7 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 14.4 10.6 9.8 -6.7 0.7 3.1 16.2 17.9 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 19.3 16.8 16.3 -5.3 4.2 6.5 20.8 23.1 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 19.8 17.4 16.4 -4.8 4.7 7.6 21.5 22.2 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 19.0 17.0 17.0 -4.5 8.0 10.0 21.2 22.2 23.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 99 1 0 100 19.0 16.1 14.9 -5.5 3.6 6.0 21.2 22.3 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 99 1 0 100 19.4 17.2 15.7 -4.9 6.1 7.7 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 19.6 16.7 13.2 -5.6 2.3 5.5 21.3 22.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 19.2 17.3 16.5 -4.6 7.2 8.9 21.1 22.0 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 97 3 0 100 19.7 18.2 15.1 -4.7 7.7 9.6 21.5 23.2 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 13.4 9.9 11.2 -6.5 1.6 3.6 15.6 16.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 19.1 17.4 17.2 -4.4 8.0 10.5 21.2 22.0 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------