***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 7.6 7.9 9.6 -0.7 32.4 38.5 8.0 8.2 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 7.5 7.6 9.1 -0.8 31.4 36.3 7.7 8.3 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 9.9 10.1 9.6 -0.8 29.8 36.0 10.3 10.6 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.3 5.3 6.8 -0.9 28.3 34.5 5.4 5.8 6.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 6.5 6.6 7.3 -0.9 27.7 33.5 6.9 7.9 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 5.8 6.2 5.3 -0.9 28.2 33.0 6.6 7.1 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 7.8 7.9 9.2 -0.8 32.0 37.3 7.9 8.2 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 2.1 2.0 5.1 -1.1 23.2 28.2 2.3 2.9 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 7.8 7.6 7.5 -0.9 28.6 33.9 8.1 8.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 7.4 7.2 5.9 -1.1 24.6 29.6 7.8 8.3 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 7.0 6.8 6.7 -1.0 26.5 31.9 7.2 8.1 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 6.0 5.8 5.8 -1.1 25.7 30.1 6.2 7.2 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 6.3 6.6 5.8 -0.9 29.6 33.2 6.9 7.7 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 8.3 8.2 7.3 -1.0 25.9 31.2 8.3 8.7 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 8.0 8.6 8.4 -0.5 38.8 41.3 8.6 8.8 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 7.7 8.0 6.2 -0.9 28.3 33.0 8.3 8.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 7.7 7.8 8.8 -0.8 31.4 35.7 7.8 8.5 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 6.1 5.9 5.1 -1.2 21.4 28.2 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 7.7 7.8 9.1 -0.8 30.6 35.8 7.9 8.3 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 2.4 2.0 3.5 -1.4 19.9 26.6 2.9 4.0 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.2 7.2 8.8 -0.8 30.8 36.0 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 6.8 7.1 8.9 -0.8 30.6 34.6 7.2 7.5 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 7.5 7.4 9.0 -0.8 29.4 34.7 7.5 8.2 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 7.4 7.6 7.1 -1.0 25.2 31.2 7.7 8.0 8.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 7.7 7.9 8.5 -0.8 31.0 37.0 7.9 8.7 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 6.9 7.2 5.5 -0.9 30.2 33.2 7.3 7.9 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 7.6 7.8 9.1 -0.8 32.6 38.0 7.8 8.8 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 6.0 7.0 7.1 -0.8 31.5 36.3 7.0 7.3 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 5.5 5.4 4.5 -1.3 20.1 27.0 5.6 6.1 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 8.0 8.0 9.4 -0.8 31.7 36.9 8.0 8.8 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------