***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.2 6.5 8.8 0.1 52.8 51.2 4.4 6.2 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.2 8.3 0.1 49.6 50.5 4.4 6.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.6 8.7 0.1 51.1 50.6 6.9 8.5 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.2 4.1 5.9 0.1 52.3 50.8 2.5 3.9 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.0 6.2 0.0 49.6 49.3 4.1 5.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.5 4.5 0.0 47.6 49.4 2.9 4.6 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.3 8.4 0.1 49.7 50.8 4.4 6.3 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.0 0.9 4.4 -0.1 43.7 47.7 -0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.5 6.5 0.0 48.6 48.7 5.3 6.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.1 5.1 -0.1 44.3 47.4 4.8 6.3 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.8 5.5 0.0 46.7 48.4 4.4 6.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.4 4.9 0.0 45.8 48.4 3.4 4.5 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.3 4.6 -0.1 46.9 47.7 3.4 4.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.5 6.4 -0.2 44.1 46.9 4.9 6.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.7 7.0 6.9 0.2 54.0 52.4 4.0 6.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.2 5.1 0.0 47.9 48.8 5.2 6.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.0 8.1 0.0 47.8 50.2 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 5.9 4.9 4.4 -0.1 43.9 47.0 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.7 8.3 0.0 49.3 50.4 4.4 6.8 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.1 0.8 3.0 -0.1 42.7 47.0 -0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.4 7.9 0.0 49.2 49.7 4.9 6.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.7 8.0 0.0 48.2 49.7 4.1 5.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.2 8.2 0.0 48.0 49.8 4.1 6.3 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.5 6.1 -0.1 44.9 47.6 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.9 6.4 7.5 0.1 52.0 50.6 5.0 6.4 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.7 4.9 4.5 0.0 47.3 49.1 4.1 5.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.1 7.0 8.2 0.1 52.6 50.7 4.7 6.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.2 6.0 0.1 52.5 51.0 2.6 5.1 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 5.3 4.6 4.0 -0.1 43.5 46.9 2.8 5.1 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.1 8.6 0.1 50.9 51.0 5.2 7.0 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------