***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 7.1 7.6 9.6 -0.3 46.6 47.5 6.9 7.7 8.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 6.5 7.4 9.1 -0.4 43.9 46.2 7.2 7.6 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 9.3 9.9 9.5 -0.4 44.3 45.9 9.2 10.3 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.2 5.5 6.9 -0.3 46.5 48.3 5.0 5.5 6.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.0 7.0 -0.5 43.4 45.5 6.4 7.3 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.3 5.4 -0.4 45.2 46.3 5.4 6.6 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 7.0 7.6 9.1 -0.5 42.6 45.4 7.2 7.8 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.4 5.1 -0.6 41.6 43.5 1.7 2.6 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.1 7.2 -0.6 42.7 44.5 7.3 8.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.8 5.8 -0.7 41.8 43.0 7.5 8.0 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.4 6.3 -0.6 43.8 44.4 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.2 5.6 -0.6 41.7 44.3 5.7 6.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.8 6.6 5.3 -0.7 39.9 43.8 5.7 7.4 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.9 7.9 7.0 -0.8 38.4 41.4 7.6 8.5 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 7.5 8.2 8.1 -0.1 48.8 49.9 7.5 8.2 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.1 5.9 -0.5 44.5 45.3 7.6 8.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 7.1 7.6 8.7 -0.6 41.3 44.8 7.4 7.7 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.6 4.9 -0.8 39.9 41.9 6.4 6.9 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.0 7.5 9.1 -0.4 44.4 46.1 7.1 7.8 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.2 3.4 -0.8 37.3 42.1 2.0 3.0 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.3 7.0 8.7 -0.4 45.1 46.4 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.4 6.7 8.6 -0.6 41.9 44.7 6.4 7.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 6.9 7.5 8.9 -0.5 43.5 45.1 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.0 6.7 -0.8 40.3 42.2 6.8 7.3 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.9 7.6 8.4 -0.2 47.7 48.7 6.9 7.8 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.1 5.3 -0.5 41.8 45.6 6.3 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 6.4 7.2 9.0 -0.4 46.2 47.0 6.8 7.6 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.8 6.5 7.0 -0.3 46.5 47.8 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.8 4.4 -0.9 37.3 41.1 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 7.0 7.6 9.3 -0.4 44.5 46.5 7.3 7.7 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------