***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 8.3 9.4 10.0 -0.7 41.0 44.1 7.9 9.8 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 8.3 9.1 9.5 -0.8 38.6 41.8 8.6 10.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.4 10.9 9.9 -0.9 36.2 41.2 10.9 11.7 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 7.5 5.9 7.4 -0.9 36.8 41.8 5.8 6.9 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 7.2 8.2 8.0 -0.9 36.2 41.3 7.6 8.8 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.6 6.9 5.8 -0.9 36.3 40.3 6.4 8.2 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 8.6 9.1 9.7 -0.7 42.2 43.5 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 2.8 2.4 5.6 -1.2 31.4 36.5 2.5 4.1 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.1 8.0 -1.0 33.0 39.0 9.1 10.2 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.9 8.0 6.4 -1.2 31.0 36.6 8.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.4 7.7 7.4 -1.0 34.1 38.7 7.6 8.9 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.1 6.8 6.5 -1.1 34.0 38.1 6.7 8.1 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.8 7.5 6.5 -1.0 36.9 39.5 7.3 8.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.8 8.7 7.6 -1.1 31.9 37.5 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.5 9.0 -0.6 38.9 43.9 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.6 6.9 -0.9 35.8 40.3 8.4 10.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 8.7 9.3 9.3 -0.8 39.1 42.0 8.7 9.8 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.0 5.6 -1.3 29.3 35.9 7.3 8.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 8.3 8.8 9.5 -0.9 36.2 40.9 8.5 9.7 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.0 2.5 4.1 -1.3 29.6 37.0 3.1 5.2 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 8.1 8.7 9.2 -0.9 36.6 40.9 8.4 9.6 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 7.7 8.1 9.3 -1.0 35.0 39.8 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 8.1 8.3 9.4 -1.0 33.6 39.8 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.8 8.0 7.6 -1.1 31.6 37.5 8.0 9.0 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.7 9.6 9.1 -0.7 40.4 43.7 8.8 10.2 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.0 6.1 -1.0 37.6 40.3 6.8 9.0 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 8.8 9.9 9.7 -0.6 43.0 44.9 8.7 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.1 7.6 7.7 -0.8 35.9 42.2 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.4 6.4 4.9 -1.4 27.8 35.3 6.6 7.5 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 8.9 9.4 9.8 -0.8 39.2 42.2 8.9 10.3 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------