***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 8.9 8.7 9.9 -2.0 22.0 23.2 9.8 10.7 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 8.0 8.3 9.5 -2.0 19.6 21.6 9.3 10.7 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 10.6 10.4 10.1 -1.9 21.2 22.6 11.5 12.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 5.4 5.2 7.1 -2.5 15.7 16.0 6.6 8.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 7.0 6.8 8.0 -2.4 18.9 18.2 8.2 10.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 7.3 6.8 5.4 -2.4 14.5 17.9 7.8 9.0 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 9.0 9.3 9.7 -1.9 21.5 23.3 9.5 10.6 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 2.1 1.6 5.3 -2.6 11.1 13.5 3.8 4.4 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 8.6 9.2 8.3 -1.9 22.5 22.6 9.7 10.2 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 8.3 8.0 6.3 -2.4 15.6 17.1 9.5 10.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 7.7 7.6 7.6 -2.2 17.8 18.6 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 7.1 6.8 6.3 -2.5 14.3 15.7 8.1 8.8 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 8.2 7.6 6.8 -2.0 19.7 22.9 8.2 9.7 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 9.5 9.6 8.0 -1.8 21.4 22.8 9.9 10.6 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 9.2 9.4 9.7 -1.4 25.7 27.0 9.8 10.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 9.1 9.2 7.0 -2.3 17.8 18.8 9.9 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 90 10 0 100 8.6 8.7 9.2 -2.0 21.1 21.8 9.6 10.2 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 7.3 7.1 5.6 -2.6 13.5 14.8 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 8.6 8.9 9.6 -1.9 20.8 22.2 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 3.8 3.2 3.5 -3.2 6.3 9.3 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 8.4 8.5 9.4 -1.9 21.8 22.7 9.1 10.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 8.0 8.5 9.6 -1.8 23.3 22.9 8.9 9.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 8.4 8.4 9.7 -1.8 22.7 23.1 9.1 10.3 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 8.6 8.6 7.9 -2.0 20.6 21.0 9.3 10.0 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 8.6 8.3 9.0 -2.4 17.3 19.6 9.6 10.9 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 7.9 7.2 6.0 -2.3 15.3 19.7 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 86 14 0 100 8.0 7.6 9.4 -2.2 20.1 21.9 9.2 11.5 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 7.2 7.2 7.8 -2.1 19.5 20.3 8.1 9.2 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 93 7 0 100 5.7 5.2 4.8 -2.7 11.7 13.1 7.1 8.3 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 8.8 8.8 9.9 -2.0 20.2 22.5 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------