***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 34.6 83.0 49.3 44.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 22.8 39.3 36.9 91.1 52.0 46.6 24.8 38.8 50.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 32.7 42.4 33.9 80.9 45.9 42.3 30.3 48.7 67.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 44.6 67.5 37.7 78.7 47.3 40.4 35.6 73.7 86.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 33.7 41.5 35.6 75.6 42.8 38.8 30.9 50.2 61.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 58.3 47.6 39.1 74.8 42.3 38.1 33.5 51.6 63.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 20.8 39.6 38.2 95.7 54.8 48.8 19.1 36.0 49.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 50.3 55.3 37.4 73.0 36.5 36.1 48.8 69.6 77.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 50.3 33.4 37.1 79.6 43.6 41.3 30.2 43.9 61.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 59.5 44.0 38.9 76.1 39.5 38.5 36.3 54.1 64.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 32.7 38.2 32.3 73.5 41.7 38.0 33.2 47.5 56.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 28.4 39.0 30.7 70.9 39.1 36.4 35.7 43.8 57.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 30.0 36.8 33.4 71.0 38.7 36.6 32.4 41.5 67.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 51.4 50.7 42.9 82.7 42.4 42.0 42.3 71.1 89.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 26.4 41.7 37.5 82.9 47.3 41.9 28.5 46.2 62.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 26.4 34.8 32.0 71.1 39.2 36.5 29.8 39.8 55.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 19.4 32.1 38.3 95.3 51.8 48.6 15.1 31.8 43.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 61.6 48.7 44.6 78.4 39.2 39.3 36.1 52.9 62.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 26.3 44.7 35.9 87.5 49.9 44.8 27.2 44.7 62.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 40.5 44.4 55.5 80.3 36.3 39.4 40.9 53.9 76.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 47.0 38.8 34.9 80.9 45.8 42.5 33.2 41.0 55.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 23.2 38.0 39.2 93.9 51.8 47.7 22.2 36.5 46.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 29.1 36.6 35.8 83.7 47.6 43.0 29.1 41.7 65.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 34.5 47.8 39.4 78.7 40.3 40.2 33.0 49.8 74.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 29.6 44.9 38.4 79.4 46.2 41.0 28.0 47.3 65.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 33.2 35.7 33.8 72.4 34.6 36.1 34.0 48.2 54.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.0 43.3 38.1 83.0 48.8 43.0 29.7 44.4 63.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 29.0 43.6 35.6 77.0 44.4 39.3 31.0 48.0 60.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 55.6 56.1 49.5 80.0 38.9 39.7 51.9 70.8 104.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 25.9 43.0 36.3 89.0 51.4 45.9 21.0 39.9 53.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------