***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.4 94.1 56.7 49.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.8 7.1 9.4 104.1 60.9 51.7 0.5 4.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.2 12.3 9.0 95.1 57.0 50.0 1.3 8.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.9 11.3 11.4 100.7 62.7 49.6 3.2 6.7 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.1 11.1 99.6 59.4 49.2 1.7 8.2 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 1.5 7.0 11.9 94.2 57.3 48.6 1.0 3.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.5 9.8 105.6 59.2 52.1 0.9 3.8 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.2 15.7 11.8 100.6 61.4 49.5 5.3 10.2 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.6 10.8 98.3 59.7 49.3 4.5 7.8 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.0 14.4 11.6 100.0 61.3 49.4 2.8 10.9 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.7 12.7 10.6 101.5 59.1 48.7 2.0 10.0 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.3 10.0 97.2 59.5 48.9 1.6 7.6 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.5 9.4 10.7 94.2 55.8 49.0 1.1 8.0 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.1 21.4 10.6 89.3 57.7 47.9 7.8 14.7 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.3 6.3 11.5 105.2 64.7 50.2 1.0 3.1 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.9 7.9 10.3 97.2 57.3 48.4 1.3 6.6 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.5 9.5 104.5 61.1 50.7 0.6 1.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.2 12.3 96.5 58.8 49.3 3.8 7.9 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.2 9.0 98.8 60.4 50.4 3.3 9.3 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.7 14.8 15.4 99.9 60.7 49.7 2.9 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.6 10.0 98.5 57.6 49.1 2.0 6.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.4 10.7 9.5 100.8 63.6 50.0 0.6 5.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.6 13.2 8.7 91.0 58.1 48.7 2.4 8.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.0 10.3 92.5 57.8 48.8 3.4 13.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 1.8 10.5 10.8 95.7 55.8 49.3 1.4 4.0 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.8 8.9 11.2 99.5 59.6 48.2 0.5 6.1 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.2 10.2 93.9 55.3 49.2 2.4 5.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.3 9.9 11.0 101.0 63.3 49.4 3.0 5.3 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.2 19.2 13.1 93.9 59.0 48.7 6.1 13.4 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 9.0 9.0 9.3 101.2 59.3 51.5 1.2 6.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------