***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 11.9 111.4 65.9 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.7 11.8 97.5 59.6 50.8 1.7 4.2 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.7 9.3 11.2 95.8 60.7 51.5 0.6 6.9 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.4 17.0 13.1 106.2 63.1 52.9 3.0 9.6 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.5 10.5 12.4 103.2 61.4 52.7 1.6 3.8 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.9 18.0 12.9 94.6 61.7 51.4 3.9 8.3 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.8 11.4 12.2 104.3 62.5 52.4 0.7 2.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.0 17.3 12.3 87.1 57.0 48.8 7.6 12.4 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.0 13.3 12.3 102.2 61.6 52.6 1.4 7.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.0 16.8 12.8 92.6 59.6 50.1 2.2 9.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.8 10.9 96.2 62.5 50.6 1.0 6.6 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.5 12.1 10.4 89.8 59.3 49.6 1.2 6.5 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.2 16.4 11.5 93.5 61.3 51.2 2.5 5.9 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.0 12.2 14.4 95.4 59.5 48.6 1.5 6.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.3 11.8 12.8 108.3 65.4 52.2 0.4 2.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.4 11.4 11.0 94.9 60.7 50.3 1.1 5.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.1 5.2 12.6 101.7 60.9 51.3 0.3 1.1 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 17.1 18.3 15.1 91.2 59.1 49.2 2.8 14.6 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.0 5.4 11.6 95.1 59.2 50.0 0.6 2.0 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.7 13.1 18.7 89.4 58.3 48.2 5.4 9.6 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.9 16.7 11.5 105.2 63.6 53.7 4.0 8.3 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.7 12.6 97.5 59.5 50.2 0.1 4.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.4 6.1 11.7 93.9 59.1 49.3 0.4 2.5 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.3 13.9 13.4 92.5 60.1 49.5 1.6 6.6 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.9 14.6 13.5 112.2 63.4 54.8 1.7 8.1 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.1 18.9 11.2 93.7 61.0 52.4 5.7 10.0 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.8 13.4 115.5 64.5 54.7 1.4 4.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.4 10.8 12.4 102.8 61.8 52.0 1.0 2.3 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.2 23.1 17.0 92.6 59.8 48.5 5.0 17.8 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.0 11.6 98.6 59.6 51.6 0.8 3.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------