***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 8.9 96.8 64.9 52.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.6 11.3 10.3 117.6 68.4 54.0 0.4 3.0 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.6 10.6 8.9 93.3 65.8 49.5 2.6 4.4 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 16.4 14.1 8.0 74.2 57.6 49.4 4.6 12.3 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.9 7.5 69.7 56.2 46.5 2.6 9.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.9 6.1 9.2 74.7 56.2 45.3 1.2 3.3 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.8 12.1 10.4 121.9 68.1 55.4 0.3 3.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.5 8.8 75.2 59.6 48.1 5.8 14.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.4 10.7 8.1 73.7 56.9 46.4 1.6 6.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.1 9.1 77.1 59.6 47.9 2.6 10.7 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.4 7.1 73.5 60.7 47.8 2.0 11.3 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.9 13.0 6.8 70.6 58.0 47.7 1.2 6.5 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.4 6.2 7.7 75.3 56.8 44.9 2.1 5.4 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.7 16.0 11.7 105.2 64.9 52.3 3.1 6.3 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 13.4 8.6 83.9 61.3 50.0 2.0 6.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.5 8.3 7.2 72.6 56.6 46.1 0.6 2.7 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.4 11.6 10.9 135.4 71.9 55.5 0.3 3.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.4 11.0 84.4 60.7 49.6 3.0 10.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.5 12.0 10.1 111.5 66.5 52.8 2.0 3.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 15.3 17.1 14.4 88.3 61.8 51.0 5.3 13.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.3 11.3 8.1 81.6 60.0 49.3 1.9 8.1 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.2 12.7 11.4 136.2 69.6 56.0 0.7 4.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.5 11.9 10.0 103.9 64.0 52.2 1.5 3.8 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.5 12.9 10.1 89.4 62.6 49.3 3.7 8.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.5 5.9 9.6 87.9 58.2 50.1 1.8 3.7 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.3 7.3 70.3 57.5 44.9 1.2 2.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.9 10.0 96.9 61.4 52.0 0.9 2.8 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.3 14.7 7.6 72.7 57.5 49.1 3.8 10.6 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.6 19.2 12.8 91.6 60.2 51.0 6.0 11.6 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.1 10.8 9.9 108.9 66.1 53.0 0.9 4.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------