***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.4 37.4 40.6 26.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.9 5.2 5.3 50.5 46.8 39.1 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 2.1 4.2 4.9 43.2 39.0 29.6 3.5 6.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 3.2 3.8 5.3 38.9 34.2 27.0 3.3 13.1 24.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 2.1 3.2 4.6 35.2 31.9 22.3 4.0 9.4 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 1.4 2.6 5.1 37.4 31.9 26.0 2.7 7.1 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.6 3.3 5.8 56.1 46.2 43.2 2.2 3.7 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 2.9 6.2 4.5 33.3 30.4 23.3 6.5 13.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 2.5 4.0 5.9 46.8 37.4 27.5 1.8 10.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 3.0 2.8 5.4 39.2 32.7 25.4 2.9 12.4 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 1.9 2.0 3.7 29.6 29.6 21.0 3.3 9.9 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 1.1 3.3 3.5 29.9 33.2 23.1 3.3 5.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 1.1 2.3 3.5 26.5 27.2 17.4 3.7 7.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 3.2 5.8 6.2 45.0 36.2 28.3 5.5 11.6 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 1.4 3.5 4.6 37.7 38.1 26.2 2.0 5.9 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 1.4 1.4 3.4 26.9 26.5 18.1 3.3 7.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.7 5.3 49.7 45.1 39.1 1.7 6.3 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 2.4 3.7 6.2 42.7 33.1 26.0 3.7 9.1 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.9 5.6 5.3 49.1 45.9 36.2 4.0 6.1 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 2.3 4.2 7.0 42.3 28.5 24.3 6.1 10.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 2.6 3.8 5.3 44.0 36.9 27.4 2.6 9.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.1 5.8 52.1 44.0 38.0 2.2 8.6 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.3 5.9 5.5 48.7 41.6 32.8 3.9 8.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 2.3 3.3 5.6 42.6 35.4 26.2 2.6 8.3 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 2.3 4.6 4.6 32.3 31.9 21.6 4.7 9.9 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 1.3 1.3 4.0 31.0 27.5 21.9 2.1 7.9 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 3.3 4.9 4.6 34.9 37.4 24.6 3.3 12.4 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 1.8 2.2 4.6 35.7 34.5 25.2 1.9 7.3 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 2.6 5.3 6.6 42.4 30.3 25.3 6.0 10.8 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.7 5.5 51.0 45.3 38.8 2.5 5.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------