***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 0.0 21.8 3.1 95.4 86.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 21.2 22.2 21.7 3.0 95.5 85.4 19.4 20.4 20.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 21.5 22.9 22.0 3.2 96.0 87.5 19.5 20.3 20.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 14.7 16.0 20.1 3.1 95.4 88.0 12.6 13.1 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 21.3 23.4 20.6 3.3 96.8 88.7 19.7 20.6 21.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 21.1 23.7 19.2 3.4 98.1 90.0 19.2 19.7 20.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 21.1 21.7 21.5 2.9 94.3 84.6 19.2 20.0 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 11.3 14.1 19.4 3.4 98.0 89.3 9.9 10.6 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 21.5 23.2 21.2 3.4 97.0 88.9 19.6 20.5 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 21.1 22.8 20.2 3.4 97.4 89.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 21.3 23.7 20.5 3.4 97.7 89.6 19.5 20.4 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 20.9 23.1 20.3 3.5 98.1 89.9 19.3 19.7 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 21.7 24.3 20.2 3.6 98.1 90.1 19.9 20.9 21.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 21.6 23.2 20.8 3.2 95.4 86.6 20.1 21.0 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 21.0 22.2 20.7 3.2 95.4 88.8 19.0 20.0 20.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 22.1 24.5 20.4 3.5 97.9 90.0 20.5 21.6 21.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 20.7 21.6 21.1 2.8 94.6 84.0 18.8 19.6 20.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 20.5 22.0 19.5 3.3 96.5 87.8 18.8 19.5 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 21.4 22.0 21.9 3.2 96.0 86.5 19.4 20.1 20.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 17.1 19.3 17.3 3.0 96.6 87.0 15.6 16.4 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 21.2 23.0 21.6 3.2 96.1 87.7 19.6 20.4 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 21.4 22.7 21.2 2.8 94.8 84.5 19.6 20.2 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 21.7 22.4 22.1 3.4 96.2 87.7 19.6 20.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 21.7 23.1 20.9 3.3 96.2 87.8 19.8 20.5 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 20.8 21.5 20.5 3.1 95.5 86.8 19.3 19.8 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 21.4 24.2 19.5 3.0 97.9 88.1 20.0 20.2 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 21.2 22.5 21.1 3.0 94.9 86.1 19.6 20.1 20.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 21.6 23.1 20.6 3.3 95.7 88.9 19.2 20.1 20.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 16.6 18.4 18.5 3.1 95.7 86.9 14.8 15.5 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 21.3 22.1 21.9 3.1 95.8 86.0 19.4 20.1 20.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------