***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 0.0 20.3 1.8 73.8 66.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 21.5 21.8 20.1 1.7 75.5 66.2 18.8 19.8 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 21.6 21.0 20.4 1.8 72.9 67.1 18.6 20.0 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.2 18.7 1.9 74.6 68.7 11.2 12.1 13.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 21.1 21.5 19.0 1.8 71.2 67.5 18.5 19.8 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 20.9 21.3 17.7 2.0 74.2 69.4 17.9 19.3 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 20.8 21.1 19.9 1.6 74.5 65.9 18.7 19.3 20.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 11.5 11.3 17.7 1.8 68.9 66.1 9.1 10.3 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 21.3 21.4 19.5 1.9 70.3 67.2 18.5 19.8 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 21.0 20.5 18.4 1.8 67.5 65.9 18.6 19.8 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 21.4 21.8 18.8 1.9 69.8 68.0 19.0 19.8 21.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 21.1 21.4 18.7 1.9 72.3 67.9 18.0 19.8 20.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 21.9 21.8 18.4 1.9 73.3 68.5 18.8 20.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 21.9 21.5 19.1 1.6 66.7 64.0 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 20.7 21.7 19.1 2.1 80.4 71.7 17.1 18.9 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 22.3 22.8 18.7 2.0 72.4 68.9 19.6 20.6 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 20.7 20.5 19.6 1.5 72.3 65.1 18.5 18.8 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 19.8 19.7 17.7 1.6 63.3 63.3 17.4 18.7 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 21.3 21.8 20.3 1.8 76.8 66.5 18.7 19.5 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.6 15.5 1.3 60.9 61.2 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 21.2 21.0 20.0 1.8 71.0 66.8 18.3 19.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 21.2 21.5 19.6 1.5 73.3 64.8 18.9 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 21.6 22.0 20.4 1.9 75.2 66.6 18.8 20.0 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 21.5 20.8 19.2 1.7 67.3 65.0 18.6 19.9 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 19.9 20.2 18.9 1.8 75.0 67.5 18.4 19.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 21.4 20.9 17.8 1.5 68.6 65.9 19.4 19.8 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 21.0 21.3 19.5 1.7 73.7 66.7 18.6 19.2 20.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 21.0 21.5 19.0 2.0 76.3 70.1 17.2 19.0 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.0 16.7 1.4 61.1 61.8 13.6 15.2 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 21.0 21.4 20.3 1.7 75.0 66.7 18.5 19.3 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------