***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 0.0 22.9 3.4 84.9 78.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 22.5 23.7 22.7 3.2 81.5 75.6 20.7 21.5 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 23.4 24.3 23.0 3.4 81.2 77.7 21.1 21.4 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 17.1 18.4 21.5 3.7 89.5 81.5 13.4 14.8 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 23.5 24.7 21.7 3.6 87.8 79.8 20.8 21.8 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 22.6 24.7 20.5 4.0 93.4 83.7 20.2 20.6 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 22.3 22.9 22.5 3.1 81.6 75.3 20.5 21.3 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 12.8 13.9 20.5 3.6 85.1 79.1 10.5 11.7 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 23.4 24.6 22.1 3.6 84.8 79.1 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 23.0 23.9 21.1 3.6 84.5 78.5 20.7 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 23.6 25.0 21.6 3.8 88.5 80.8 20.8 22.3 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 23.1 24.4 21.5 3.9 88.5 81.2 20.1 21.2 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 23.9 25.7 21.3 4.1 92.2 83.0 21.0 21.9 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 23.4 23.7 21.5 3.1 76.4 74.3 21.6 22.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 23.6 24.4 22.0 4.0 92.9 84.5 19.9 20.7 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 24.4 26.1 21.6 4.0 92.0 82.8 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 21.6 22.1 22.1 2.9 79.7 73.6 19.8 20.9 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 22.5 23.1 20.3 3.3 81.0 75.8 19.9 21.5 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 22.6 23.3 22.9 3.3 80.8 76.2 20.7 21.3 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 18.7 19.0 18.2 3.1 79.2 74.8 16.4 18.0 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 23.5 24.1 22.6 3.5 83.1 78.3 21.0 21.8 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 22.7 23.2 22.0 2.8 77.3 73.4 20.3 21.8 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 22.9 23.6 22.9 3.4 80.3 76.5 20.8 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 23.0 23.8 21.7 3.3 80.2 76.2 20.9 21.9 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 22.6 24.0 21.6 3.5 87.9 79.1 20.0 20.9 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 23.3 24.7 20.8 3.5 86.4 80.5 20.6 21.4 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 23.1 24.1 22.1 3.4 85.1 77.9 19.9 21.6 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 23.8 25.2 21.9 3.9 91.6 83.3 20.1 21.7 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 18.1 18.7 19.3 3.1 79.7 74.5 16.2 17.2 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 22.4 23.1 22.9 3.3 81.5 76.5 20.4 21.5 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------