***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 0.0 12.5 2.3 92.3 85.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 9.5 11.1 12.0 2.1 91.5 83.8 7.7 8.3 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 11.7 12.6 12.2 2.3 92.8 85.9 10.3 10.6 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 6.9 8.0 10.0 2.1 92.9 85.8 5.4 5.8 6.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 9.1 10.0 10.1 2.1 93.1 85.5 6.9 7.9 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 7.9 8.9 8.4 2.0 93.8 86.0 6.6 7.1 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 9.6 10.9 12.1 2.1 91.4 84.1 7.9 8.2 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 3.8 4.7 8.6 2.1 93.0 85.3 2.3 2.9 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 10.0 10.6 10.5 2.1 92.6 85.0 8.1 8.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 9.5 10.2 9.1 2.0 92.6 84.9 7.8 8.3 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 9.0 9.8 9.6 2.0 92.5 85.1 7.2 8.1 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 7.9 8.6 9.3 2.0 93.0 85.7 6.2 7.2 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 8.6 9.3 8.7 1.9 92.3 84.8 6.9 7.7 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 9.8 10.9 10.6 2.1 95.0 86.2 8.3 8.7 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 9.5 10.0 10.8 2.2 93.9 87.9 8.6 8.8 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 10.0 10.7 9.2 2.0 92.3 85.3 8.3 8.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 9.7 10.6 11.6 2.0 91.4 82.1 7.8 8.5 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 8.3 9.2 8.5 2.0 91.6 84.0 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 9.6 10.7 12.0 2.2 92.5 84.8 7.9 8.3 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 4.9 5.5 7.1 1.9 89.9 82.6 2.9 4.0 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 9.7 10.7 11.6 2.2 92.7 85.0 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 9.0 9.8 11.5 2.0 91.6 82.9 7.2 7.5 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 9.4 10.5 11.9 2.3 94.9 86.3 7.5 8.2 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 9.0 9.6 10.3 2.1 93.6 85.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 10.2 11.4 11.1 2.2 92.9 85.9 7.9 8.7 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 8.7 9.0 8.9 1.9 92.0 84.5 7.3 7.9 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 10.6 11.7 11.8 2.3 92.2 85.5 7.8 8.8 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 8.0 8.9 10.3 2.1 93.0 86.6 7.0 7.3 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 7.6 8.4 7.9 1.8 90.7 83.2 5.6 6.1 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 10.2 11.1 12.3 2.2 91.8 84.7 8.0 8.8 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------