***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 9.2 1.1 62.7 61.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.7 7.0 8.9 1.0 63.9 61.1 4.4 6.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.0 10.1 9.0 1.1 64.7 62.3 6.9 8.5 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 4.2 4.7 6.8 0.9 62.2 60.3 2.5 3.9 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.4 6.9 0.9 59.9 60.2 4.1 5.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.2 4.8 5.2 0.6 55.3 56.9 2.9 4.6 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.7 7.1 8.9 0.9 61.9 60.6 4.4 6.3 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.0 2.6 5.6 0.9 57.4 58.9 -0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.9 7.4 1.0 60.2 60.7 5.3 6.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.7 6.1 0.9 58.6 59.0 4.8 6.3 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.3 6.5 0.9 59.0 59.7 4.4 6.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.1 5.5 6.2 0.9 57.9 58.7 3.4 4.5 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.5 5.6 0.6 54.1 56.2 3.4 4.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 8.0 7.6 7.5 1.1 62.6 62.0 4.9 6.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.7 7.4 7.5 1.1 62.3 62.0 4.0 6.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.0 7.1 6.1 0.8 57.1 58.3 5.2 6.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.7 7.1 8.5 0.9 62.1 59.4 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.8 5.5 0.8 57.9 58.4 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.6 8.9 1.1 65.5 62.2 4.4 6.8 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.2 1.8 4.2 0.8 53.5 57.5 -0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.2 8.4 1.0 62.4 61.2 4.9 6.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.6 6.7 8.6 1.0 63.9 61.0 4.1 5.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.5 8.8 1.2 66.5 63.7 4.1 6.3 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.5 7.3 1.0 62.2 61.0 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 7.9 8.0 7.7 1.0 61.4 61.3 5.0 6.4 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.6 5.8 0.5 52.6 55.1 4.1 5.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 8.0 7.8 8.5 1.0 61.7 61.3 4.7 6.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.6 7.0 0.9 61.1 60.3 2.6 5.1 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.2 5.1 0.8 56.4 57.8 2.8 5.1 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.9 9.1 1.1 64.0 61.7 5.2 7.0 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------