***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 0.0 11.6 1.5 75.4 67.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 9.0 9.5 11.2 1.4 74.0 66.5 7.2 7.6 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 11.0 11.3 11.3 1.5 77.8 67.9 9.2 10.3 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.7 9.2 1.5 74.9 70.3 5.0 5.5 6.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 8.4 8.9 9.2 1.5 76.0 68.6 6.4 7.3 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 7.8 7.9 7.5 1.5 74.2 70.3 5.4 6.6 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 9.1 9.5 11.2 1.4 73.6 66.7 7.2 7.8 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 4.1 3.8 7.9 1.4 72.8 67.3 1.7 2.6 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 9.0 9.2 9.8 1.5 75.4 68.0 7.3 8.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 8.6 8.7 8.4 1.4 72.7 66.8 7.5 8.0 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 8.6 8.8 8.9 1.5 75.9 69.3 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 7.6 7.8 8.5 1.5 74.5 68.5 5.7 6.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 8.3 8.4 7.8 1.4 71.2 67.9 5.7 7.4 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 9.7 9.8 9.7 1.3 74.2 66.1 7.6 8.5 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 9.3 9.7 9.9 1.8 76.4 73.4 7.5 8.2 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 9.5 9.6 8.4 1.5 74.6 69.6 7.6 8.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 9.5 9.4 10.7 1.2 69.7 64.8 7.4 7.7 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 8.2 8.2 7.8 1.2 70.7 64.5 6.4 6.9 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 9.0 9.2 11.2 1.5 75.6 67.1 7.1 7.8 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 4.6 4.3 6.3 1.0 65.4 62.7 2.0 3.0 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 8.7 8.7 10.7 1.5 75.8 67.1 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 8.6 8.4 10.7 1.2 71.1 65.2 6.4 7.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 8.6 8.9 11.0 1.6 76.9 68.2 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 8.6 9.1 9.5 1.4 76.3 66.8 6.8 7.3 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 9.3 9.9 10.1 1.5 76.1 68.4 6.9 7.8 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 8.5 8.5 8.0 1.2 70.2 66.5 6.3 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 9.9 10.8 10.8 1.5 75.9 67.8 6.8 7.6 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 8.1 8.7 9.4 1.6 76.3 71.9 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 6.9 6.7 7.2 1.2 70.2 64.0 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 9.4 9.7 11.4 1.5 75.7 67.2 7.3 7.7 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------